Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 6/25/2025

As the Kansas City Royals host the Tampa Bay Rays at Kauffman Stadium on June 25, 2025, both teams are looking to improve on their current records in a crucial American League matchup. The Rays sit at 44-35, enjoying a strong season, while the Royals struggle with a 38-41 record. After a competitive game yesterday, where the Rays edged out the Royals, the pressure is on for Kansas City to even the series.

Starting for the Royals is Michael Wacha, who currently ranks as the 76th best starting pitcher in MLB. Despite being above average overall, Wacha's recent projections raise some concerns, particularly given his tendency to allow a high number of hits and walks. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs and striking out 4.4 batters, which may not be enough to stifle the Rays' potent lineup.

Drew Rasmussen, set to take the mound for Tampa Bay, is performing at a higher caliber, ranking 22nd among MLB starters. His projection of 5.0 innings with 2.5 earned runs indicates a solid outing, although his strikeouts and hits allowed leave room for improvement. This matchup presents an intriguing contrast: a solid pitcher facing a struggling offense.

The game total is set at 9.0 runs, reflecting expectations for an offensive showcase. Betting markets favor the Rays with a moneyline of -130, while the Royals' +110 line suggests a closely contested battle. With the Royals projected to score an average of 4.29 runs and the Rays at 4.71, this series could hinge on pitching efficiency and execution at the plate.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Drew Rasmussen's high utilization rate of his fastball (58.3% this year) is likely hurting his results, consider they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Josh Lowe is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 72% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen profiles as the 6th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Michael Wacha's 92.6-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a big 1-mph decrease from last year's 93.6-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Bobby Witt Jr. has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.2-mph to 100.2-mph over the last 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's game, Salvador Perez is at a disadvantage facing the league's 4th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the pull field at a 37.3% rate (95th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 42 of their last 61 games (+22.05 Units / 31% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 27 away games (+13.55 Units / 36% ROI)
• Kyle Isbel has hit the Singles Under in his last 10 games (+10.00 Units / 65% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 5.01, Kansas City Royals 4.59

• Date: June 25, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays
  • Michael Wacha - Royals

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.