Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Pick – 6/24/2025

The Kansas City Royals will host the Tampa Bay Rays on June 24, 2025, in what marks the first game of their series. Currently, the Royals stand at 38-40, showing signs of an average season, while the Rays are faring better at 43-35, indicating a solid performance thus far. The Royals are favored in this matchup, boasting a moneyline of -140.

Kris Bubic is slated to take the mound for Kansas City, and he has had a very effective season with a 6-4 record and an impressive 2.12 ERA. However, his 3.43 xFIP suggests some luck may be involved, indicating a potential decline in performance. Bubic also projects to allow an average of 2.4 earned runs over approximately 5.7 innings. Meanwhile, Taj Bradley will start for the Rays. Bradley has struggled somewhat this season with a 4.95 ERA but is considered unlucky according to projections, which suggest he may improve going forward.

The matchup poses an interesting dynamic as Bubic's strong performance may have the edge against a Rays offense that is ranked 11th in MLB. They also rank 5th in team batting average, which is indicative of their offensive strength. In contrast, the Royals’ offense ranks 27th overall and has struggled to produce runs, particularly lacking in power with just 56 home runs this season, the 2nd fewest in MLB.

While the Royals' pitching staff, including their bullpen rated 21st in the league, has shown cracks, the projections favor Bubic’s ability to limit runs against a Tampa Bay team that may find it difficult to capitalize on his control issues. With the Game Total set at 8.5 runs, the Royals' potential to outscore their implied team total of 4.54 runs could present an opportunity for bettors looking to capitalize on this matchup.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley's 95.6-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 86th percentile among all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Bats such as Danny Jansen with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Kris Bubic who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen ranks as the 8th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Kansas City Royals:

Considering that groundball batters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Kris Bubic (43.6% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in today's game with 4 GB hitters in the opposition's projected batting order.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Over the last week, Bobby Witt Jr.'s Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.4% up to 22.7%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Salvador Perez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.3% — 95th percentile) and will have to hit them out towards baseball's 4th-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Kansas City Royals have hit the Team Total Under in 27 of their last 35 games at home (+19.55 Units / 50% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 24 away games (+14.85 Units / 44% ROI)
• Jake Mangum has hit the Runs Over in 7 of his last 10 games (+8.95 Units / 89% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.23, Kansas City Royals 4.74

• Date: June 24, 2025
• Venue: Kauffman Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taj Bradley - Rays
  • Kris Bubic - Royals

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