Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Prediction, Odds & Picks – 8/3/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: August 3, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Ronel Blanco - Astros

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

As the Houston Astros prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on August 3, 2024, both teams find themselves in a tight race for relevance in the American League. The Astros sit at 56-52, showcasing an above-average season, while the Rays hover at 55-53, marking an average performance thus far. With the two clubs separated by only a game in the standings, every matchup carries significant weight.

In their previous game, the Astros defeated the Rays, and are thus looking to build momentum following their recent victory. The Astros will send Ronel Blanco to the mound, who has enjoyed a solid season with a 9-5 record and an excellent ERA of 2.95 over 20 starts. However, projections indicate Blanco may have benefited from some luck, as his xFIP sits at 4.18, suggesting he could face challenges going forward.

On the other side, Zack Littell will take the hill for the Rays. Although he has similar innings pitched to Blanco with 20 starts, his ERA of 4.18 indicates he has struggled this season, and the projections confirm he's a below-average pitcher. Littell’s low walk rate could work against him, especially with an Astros offense that ranks 2nd in MLB in batting average and 9th in home runs.

The Astros' strong batting lineup, featuring Yainer Diaz—who has been particularly hot lately—could exploit Littell's vulnerabilities. With an implied team total of 4.35 runs, the Astros are favored in this matchup, and they may find success against a Rays offense that ranks 22nd in MLB this season. The combination of Blanco's solid performance and the Astros’ potent offense may give Houston the advantage they need to bounce back in this critical contest.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell projects for an average of 1.1 walks in this game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.332) provides evidence that Jose Siri has had bad variance on his side this year with his .285 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Kameron Misner, Christopher Morel).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ronel Blanco's high usage rate of his secondary pitches (62.8% this year) should work in his favor consider they are typically much more effective than fastballs.

• A pitcher who limits has fastball usage will instead heavily use change-ups, curveballs, sliders, etc. These are far more effective pitches at preventing runs and generating strikeouts.

Yainer Diaz has made substantial gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 8% seasonal rate to 22.7% in the past week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Houston Astros bullpen ranks as the 7th-best in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Game Total Under in 60 of their last 106 games (+11.50 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 66 of their last 107 games (+21.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Jose Altuve has hit the Singles Over in 34 of his last 50 games (+12.60 Units / 19% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.27 vs Houston Astros 4.56

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