Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Prediction – 5/31/2025

As the Houston Astros host the Tampa Bay Rays on May 31, 2025, both teams find themselves in competitive positions, with the Astros holding a record of 31-26 and the Rays at 29-28. This matchup promises to be intriguing, especially considering the Astros' recent dominance in the series, having won the previous game against the Rays.

The Astros will send Colton Gordon to the mound, a left-handed pitcher with a challenging season thus far. Despite his 5.52 ERA, advanced statistics suggest he may have been unlucky, as his 3.82 xFIP indicates potential for improvement. However, he projects to allow 2.6 earned runs over 4.9 innings, which is below average, and he'll have to navigate a Rays lineup that, while average overall, has been bolstered by their speed on the bases, ranking 1st in MLB in stolen bases.

On the other side, the Rays counter with Zack Littell, whose solid 3.97 ERA reflects a decent performance, although his 4.71 xERA suggests he's been a bit fortunate this season. Littell is a low-strikeout pitcher facing an Astros offense that ranks 5th in the league in strikeouts, which could play into Houston's hands.

The Astros’ offense boasts a respectable ranking of 13th in MLB, highlighted by a 7th ranking in team batting average, while the Rays sit at 19th. Furthermore, Houston's bullpen is ranked 9th, providing a potential advantage in late-game scenarios. With the Astros favored at -120 on the moneyline, their implied team total of 4.35 runs suggests confidence in their offensive capabilities.

This game is critical not only for maintaining momentum but also for establishing dominance in the series. With both teams looking to secure a vital win, fans can expect an exciting clash at Minute Maid Park.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against 8 opposing hitters in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Christopher Morel is penciled in 8th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 7% Barrel% of the Tampa Bay Rays makes them the #28 squad in baseball this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Among all starting pitchers, Colton Gordon's fastball velocity of 90.4 mph is in the 13th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Cam Smith has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 101.3-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal 86.4-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Isaac Paredes pulls many of his flyballs (46.3% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 26 games at home (+10.47 Units / 33% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Under in 20 of their last 30 games (+8.90 Units / 25% ROI)
• Isaac Paredes has hit the Runs Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.05 Units / 50% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.89, Houston Astros 4.49

• Date: May 31, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Colton Gordon - Astros

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