Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Prediction – 5/29/2025

The Houston Astros will host the Tampa Bay Rays on May 29, 2025, in what shapes up to be an intriguing matchup. Both teams are hovering around the .500 mark, with Houston holding a record of 30-25, while Tampa Bay sits at 28-27. The Astros are enjoying an above-average season, while the Rays find themselves in an average position as they vie to improve their standing.

The Astros come into this game on a four-game winning streak and have scored five or more runs in three straight, illustrating their capacity to score. However, they also rank 29th in MLB for stolen bases, which may limit their baserunning threats. The Astros’ offense is bolstered by a respectable 8th rank in team batting average, indicating their ability to string together hits.

On the mound, the Astros are set to start Ryan Gusto, who has had a mixed season so far. With a record of 3-2 and an ERA of 4.58, Gusto has shown flashes of potential despite being ranked 181st among starting pitchers in the league. Projections suggest he may pitch around 4.8 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs while striking out only 4.5 batters, which could be a challenge against the Rays' lineup.

On the other side, Tampa Bay will counter with Shane Baz, who is positioned more favorably as the 81st best starting pitcher in MLB. Baz owns a 4-3 record with a slightly below-average ERA of 4.94, but the projections indicate he might perform better than his numbers suggest, projecting 5.6 innings pitched and 2.6 earned runs allowed on average.

With both bullpens ranking in different tiers—Houston at 8th and Tampa Bay at 16th—the Astros may hold an edge if the game relies on late-inning pitching. This matchup presents a compelling duel, with Houston aiming to leverage their home advantage against a Rays team that needs to find consistency on both sides of the ball.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Given that flyball pitchers have a substantial edge over flyball batters, Shane Baz and his 42.7% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a good position today squaring off against 2 opposing FB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Brandon Lowe has been hot recently, notching 5 HRs in the last 14 days.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Tampa Bay Rays bats collectively grade out 28th- in MLB for power this year when using their 7% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Ryan Gusto has experienced some positive variance in regards to his strikeouts this year, putting up a 9.68 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 7.96 — a 1.72 K/9 discrepancy.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Typically, bats like Victor Caratini who hit a lot of groundballs tend to be less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Shane Baz.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46.3% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 22 of their last 36 games (+9.57 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 24 of their last 39 games (+9.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• Jake Meyers has hit the Hits Over in 20 of his last 25 games (+10.85 Units / 23% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.5, Houston Astros 4.28

• Date: May 29, 2025
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Baz - Rays
  • Ryan Gusto - Astros

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