Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Pick – 8/26/2025
The Tampa Bay Rays and Cleveland Guardians will meet on Tuesday evening at Progressive Field. Both teams enter this game on the outside looking in when it comes to the American League Wild Card standings. They will look for an important win to help their diminishing playoff hopes tonight. I have broken this game down and you can find my Rays vs Guardians prediction for this matchup below.
Our Rays vs Guardians Pick
- Pick: Rays Moneyline
- Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 26, 2025, 6:40 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Shane Baz vs Parker Messick
- Stadium: Progressive Field, Cleveland, OH
- Broadcast: FD Sports Sun / Bally Sports Great Lakes
Key Storylines
Pitching Matchup
Shane Baz will get the start for the Rays in this game. Baz has struggled lately and has seen his ERA swell to over 5.00 for the season. He will look to get back on track against a Guardians team that has had plenty of struggles of its own lately.
Parker Messick will get the start for Cleveland in this contest. Messick has only pitched 6.2 innings so far in 2025. But he was effective in those 6.2 innings and he will look to make a more sustained impact starting with this outing.
Key Players
- Junior Caminero (Rays): Caminero leads the Rays in home runs with 39 on the season. He belted two home runs in Monday’s 9-0 win over Cleveland.
- Yandy Díaz (Rays): Yandy Diaz also hit a home run for Tampa on Monday night.
- Brayan Rocchio (Guardians): Rocchio had one of Cleveland’s two hits on Monday and will need to produce given the struggles of his teammates lately.
Recent Team Streaks
- The Rays enter this game on a three-game winning streak.
- Cleveland has lost six games in a row and has gone from just outside of the Wild Card spots in the American League to several games back and trailing more teams than they had been.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Isaac Paredes | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| José Ramirez | Under 1.5 Total Bases |
| Shane Baz | Over 4.5 Strikeouts |
Betting Trends & H2H
- Tampa Bay leads the season series 1-0 over the Guardians going into this game.
- The first game between these teams had nine total runs scored and went over the total of 7.5 runs.
- Cleveland is 44-38 against American League teams this year.
- Tampa is 40-49 against American League competition.
Rays vs Guardians Model Projection
- Score Projection: Rays 5 – Guardians 3
- Win Probability: Rays 58%, Guardians 42%
Final Thoughts
I’m not all that impressed with Shane Baz on the mound for the Rays this year. But I do think that his experience edge over Parker Messick will help the Rays in this game. Cleveland is in a freefall right now and throwing an inexperienced pitcher isn’t likely to help that stop. I will go with the Rays to get the win in Cleveland for the second night in a row.
