Tampa Bay Rays vs Cincinnati Reds Pick – 7/26/2025
The Tampa Bay Rays head to Great American Ball Park on Saturday to face the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds took the first game of this series at home and will look for a second straight win over the Rays here. But runs could be hard to come by on both sides given the starting pitching matchup. Here, I break down this interleague contest and give you my Reds vs Rays prediction.
Our Rays vs Reds Pick
- Pick: Reds moneyline
- Confidence: 4 stars
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Cincinnati Reds vs Tampa Bay Rays
- Date & Time: Saturday, July 26, 2025, 6:40 p.m. ET
- Starting Pitchers: Andrew Abbott (8‑1, 2.13 ERA) vs Ryan Pepiot (6‑8, 3.59 ERA)
- Stadium: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati, OH
- Broadcast: FDSOH and FDSSUN
Key Storylines
Pitching matchup
Andrew Abbott owns a record of 8-1 and a 2.13 ERA this season. He has delivered quality starts in five of his last six outings. Abbott has been one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball this year and will look to stay hot for the Reds tonight. Ryan Pepiot has a respectable 3.59 ERA and solid strikeout‑to‑walk ratio. But run support hasn’t been consistent for him and he will need to be at or near his best to get a win tonight.
Bullpen usage
The Reds won the bullpen battle between these teams on Friday. Cincinnati gave up just two runs total against the Rays on Friday and Tampa’s bullpen will need to be better to keep up with that of Cincinnati here.
Recent team streaks
- The Reds have won two games in a row coming into this contest.
- Tampa has lost two straight games.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop |
|---|---|
| Elly De La Cruz (Reds) | Over 0.5 Home Runs |
| Andrew Abbott | Over 5.5 Strikeouts |
| Junior Caminero (Rays) | Over 1.5 Total Bases |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The Reds lead the season series between these teams 1-0 after Friday’s win.
- The first game of this series stayed under the total of 9.5 runs.
- Cincinnati improved to 29-22 at home with Friday’s win. Tampa is 22-23 on the road.
Rays vs Reds Model Projection
Score Projection: Reds 4 – Rays 3
Win Probability: Reds 56%, Rays 44%
Final Thoughts
I expect a relatively low-scoring game between the Rays and Reds tonight. Both pitchers are solid. But Abbott is certainly the better of the two and that should give the Reds the upper ahdn in this matchup. Look for Cincinnati to get a second victory in a row and for the Rays to drop their third straight overall.
