Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox Pick – 9/11/2025
The Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox will wrap up their series in Thursday’s getaway game from Rate Field in Chicago. These teams have split the first two games of this series and will try to get a series win in today’s rubber match. Here, I break down this American League matchup and bring you my Rays vs White Sox prediction for this Thursday matinee.
Our Rays vs White Sox Pick
- Pick: Rays moneyline
- Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot
- Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox
- Date & Time: Thursday, September 11, 2025, 2:10 PM ET
- Starting Pitchers: Ian Seymour vs Shane Smith
- Stadium: Rate Field, Chicago, IL
- Broadcast: CHSN in Chicago, FDSN-SUN in Tampa Bay markets
Key Storylines
- These teams have split the first two games of this series and both games were highly competitive. The Rays and White Sox have each won their game in this series by one run and we could be in for another close contest today.
- The Rays need a win in this game to get back to the .500 mark for the season. They are 5.5 games back of the final Wild Card spot in the American League and they likely won’t have time to catch up. But if they want to catch up, they need to win games like this one today.
Pitching matchup
- Ian Seymour will get the ball to start this game for the Rays. He is 3-1 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the year. Seymour is a deceptive lefty who’s limited hard contact and shown polish early. He draws a Sox lineup that has been strikeout-prone at times against southpaws.
- Shane Smith will start this game on the hill for the White Sox. Smith is 5-7 with a 3.95 ERA in 2025. The Rule 5 revelation mixes a lively fastball with a quality changeup. He was an All-Star but had a dip in midsummer form before stabilizing things.
Recent team streaks
- Tampa has lost four of its last five games coming into this matchup.
- Chicago is 3-2 in its last five games and is looking to finish the regular season strong.
Best Player Props
| Player | Prop | Pick |
|---|---|---|
| Junior Caminero | Home run | Over 0.5 |
| Ian Seymour | Strikeouts | Over 5.5 |
| Andrew Benintendi | Total bases | Over 1.5 |
Betting Trends & H2H
- The White Sox lead the season series against the Rays 3-2.
- This is the final regular-season meeting between these teams this season.
- Three of the last four games between these teams have been decided by one run.
Rays vs White Sox Model Projection
Score Projection: Rays 5 – White Sox 4
Win Probability: Rays 56%, White Sox 44%
Final Thoughts
I am going with the Tampa Bay Rays to win this rubber match from Chicago. Seymour should limit the White Sox early on and the offense of the Rays should be able to do just enough to push them over the finish line in a competitive contest.
