Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox Betting Pick & Preview – 4/26/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox Overview

• Date: April 26, 2024
• Venue: Guaranteed Rate Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Rays
  • Chris Flexen - White Sox
• Run Line: Rays -1.5 -135, White Sox 1.5 115
• Money Line: Rays -230, White Sox 200
• Total (Over/Under): 8

Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 68%
• Chicago White Sox - 32%

Projected Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 65.93%
• Chicago White Sox - 34.07%

Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago White Sox Game Preview & Prediction

The Chicago White Sox (3-22) are set to take on the Tampa Bay Rays (13-13) in an American League matchup at Guaranteed Rate Field on April 26, 2024. The White Sox, who are having a terrible season, will be looking to turn things around as the home team. On the other hand, the Rays are having an average season and will aim to continue their solid performance on the road.

The White Sox are projected to start right-handed pitcher Chris Flexen, who has struggled this year. Flexen has started three games and holds a win-loss record of 0-3 with a 6.41 ERA. Despite his poor numbers, the advanced-stat Power Rankings rank Flexen as the #304 best starting pitcher in MLB out of approximately 350 pitchers. This suggests that he has the potential to perform better in the future.

The Rays, on the other hand, are projected to start right-handed pitcher Zach Eflin. Eflin has started five games this season and holds a win-loss record of 1-2 with a 3.68 ERA. According to the advanced-stat Power Rankings, Eflin is ranked as the #23 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is a strong pitcher.

In terms of offense, the White Sox rank as the worst team in MLB this season. They hold the 30th spot in overall offensive ranking, as well as ranking 22nd in team batting average, 21st in team home runs, and 22nd in team stolen bases. The Rays, on the other hand, have a better offensive performance, ranking 24th overall. They sit at 9th in team batting average, 4th in team home runs, and an impressive 2nd in team stolen bases.

Based on the current odds, the Rays are the betting favorites with an implied win probability of 67%, while the White Sox are considered underdogs with a 33% win probability. The White Sox have a low implied team total of 3.23 runs, while the Rays have a higher implied team total of 4.77 runs.

Overall, the Rays have the advantage in this matchup with their stronger offense and more reliable starting pitcher. However, baseball can be unpredictable, and the White Sox will look to defy the odds and turn their season around with a strong performance at home.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zach Eflin has averaged 79.5 adjusted pitches per start this year, grading out in the 10th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Harold Ramirez as the 14th-best hitter in the majors as it relates to his batting average talent.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available. Batting average is the most common measure of a player's ability to generate hits.

The Tampa Bay Rays (20.4 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) project to have the 4th-least strikeout-prone set of hitters of all teams on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Chicago White Sox:

Chris Flexen's slider percentage has fallen by 5.8% from last season to this one (8.4% to 2.6%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Nicky Lopez has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (74% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the batting order in this game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Chicago White Sox bullpen ranks as the 2nd-worst in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Chicago White Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 72 of their last 129 games (+14.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Over in 33 of their last 54 games (+11.50 Units / 19% ROI)
• Zach Eflin has hit the Earned Runs Under in 3 of his last 4 games (+1.95 Units / 39% ROI)

Rays vs White Sox Prediction: Rays 4.86 - White Sox 3.23

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