Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs Pick – 9/12/2025

The Chicago Cubs will host the Tampa Bay Rays in the first game of a three-game interleague series on Friday afternoon. Two playoff races are involved in this game, as the Cubs lead the NL Wild Card standings and the Rays are trying desperately to catch up in the Wild Card race. Here, I look at the stats and pitchers to watch in this game and give you my Rays vs Cubs prediction.

Our Rays vs Cubs Pick

• Pick: Cubs -1.5
• Confidence: 3/5
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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs
• Date & Time: Friday, September 12, 2:20 p.m. ET
• Starting Pitchers: Shane Baz vs Matthew Boyd
• Stadium: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL
• Broadcast: MLB Network

Key Storylines

• The Rays need wins in a hurry if they are going to have a chance at October baseball. The Rays are six games back of the final AL Wild Card spot heading into this contest. They need to climb over four other teams to make it to the postseason and they are running out of time to climb the standings.
• Chicago is at the top of the National League Wild Card standings going into this series opener. Chicago is 5.5 games behind the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central standings as well. They will attempt to pull closer to the Brewers with a win here but protecting their Wild Card position will be the top priority.
• Bullpens matter: Both of these bullpens are in the top half of the league in bullpen ERA this year. The bullpen that performs the best down the stretch in this game will give its team a huge boost.

Pitching matchup

• Matthew Boyd is set to get the start in this game for the Cubs. Boyd is 12-8 with a 2.92 ERA this season. He averages under a strikeout per inning but he also averages under a hit allowed per inning. He pitches to contact and that has worked for him for the most part.
• Tampa Bay will go with Shane Baz as their starting pitcher on Friday. Baz has been mediocre this season with a 9-11 record and a 4.94 ERA. Baz has issued 57 walks in 155 innings of work and adding extra baserunners into the mix has landed him in trouble at times this year.

Recent team streaks

• The Rays have dropped two games in a row and four of their last five games.
• Chicago has won twice in a row heading into Friday’s action.

Betting Trends & H2H

• This is the first game these teams have played against each other this season.
• The Rays are 28-26 in day games this season. The Cubs are 37-30 in day games.
• Tampa is 34-38 on the road in 2025.
• Chicago is 44-28 at home.

Rays vs Cubs Model Projection

• Score Projection: Rays 4, Cubs 6
• Win Probability: Rays 44%, Cubs 56%

Final Thoughts

This is a favorable spot for the Cubs. They are at home with a significant starting pitching advantage against a Rays team that is moving in the wrong direction under the pressure of the playoff race. Boyd should slow down the Rays’ offense and the Cubs should be able to cover the runline at home.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.