Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 7/12/2025

The Tampa Bay Rays will visit the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on Saturday. This is the third game of a four-game series between these AL East rivals. Boston arrives riding an eight-game winning streak after Friday’s 5-4 walk-off victory over the Rays. Tampa is looking for their first win of this four-game set this afternoon. Here, I will give you all of the info you need to know about this game, including my Rays vs Red Sox prediction.

Our Rays vs Red Sox Pick

• Pick: Boston Red Sox to win
• Confidence: ★★★★☆
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Promo Code: ATSBONUS

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Game Snapshot

• Matchup: Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
• Date & Time: July 12, 2025, 4:10 PM EDT
• Starting Pitchers: Shane Baz (Rays) vs Garrett Crochet (Red Sox)
• Stadium: Fenway Park
• Broadcast: FDSNSUN, NESN

Key Storylines

1. Pitching form: Garrett Crochet has posted a 2.39 ERA this year and has nine wins on the season. Shane Baz carries a 4.34 ERA and is 8-4 going into this matchup with the Sox. Baz has been more vulnerable to giving up home runs. He has allowed 17 this season while Crochet has given up just 10. In a park like Fenway, that could make a huge difference in favor of the Red Sox.
2. Recent team streaks: The Red Sox have won eight straight games. That includes the first two games of this series against the Rays. The Rays have lost four of their last five contests including two straight to the Sox.

Best Player Props

Rays vs Red Sox Model Projection

Score Projection: Rays 3 – Red Sox 5

Win Probability: Rays 42%, Red Sox 58%

Final Thoughts

The pitching matchup in this game is excellent. Both Baz and Crochet have the kind of stuff that can flummox any lineup when they are at their best. I anticipate a relatively low-scoring game here even with Baz’s vulnerability to the long ball. I’ll take Boston to continue their winning streak behind a strong outing from Crochet. But this game should be tight throughout without an abundance of scoring chances on either side.

Jay Sanin

Jay Sanin is a sports bettor, writer and broadcaster from New York. He is an avid New York Knicks fan and is no longer ashamed to admit it. He is also an avid New York Giants fan, and is very ashamed to admit it. His top sports to handicap are the NBA, WNBA and men’s tennis for some reason. He has watched more UAlbany Great Danes basketball than anyone should consume.