Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction – 6/9/2025

As the Boston Red Sox prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays at Fenway Park on June 9, 2025, both teams are hungry for a win but are coming off mixed results. The Red Sox snapped a losing streak by defeating the Yankees 11-7 in their most recent matchup, while the Rays won a close game 3-2 over the Miami Marlins just prior. This game marks the first of a series between these two American League East rivals.

The Red Sox enter the contest with a record of 32-35, struggling to find consistency this season, while the Rays sit at 35-30, showcasing a solid performance thus far. Boston’s offense, ranked 6th best in MLB, continues to be its strong suit, leading the league with 83 home runs. However, the Red Sox pitching has been concerning, with Brayan Bello projected to start. Bello's performance has been decent, boasting a 3.91 ERA, but his expected metrics indicate he might be due for regression. He projects to allow 2.5 earned runs today, which is above average, although he has struggled with walks, averaging 1.9 per outing.

On the other hand, Tampa Bay's Shane Baz has had a rocky season with a 4.96 ERA but is projected to perform better than his current stats suggest. His last outing was uneventful, posting 3 earned runs in 5 innings. Baz will need to focus on limiting the powerful Red Sox offense, particularly given his high-groundball rate of 49%.

With both teams' bullpens ranked highly—10th for Boston and 9th for Tampa Bay—this game could also come down to relief effectiveness. The game total is set at 8.5 runs, suggesting a competitive battle is on the horizon. With both teams evenly matched on the betting lines, this game promises to be an exciting start to their series.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Shane Baz's 96.1-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 90th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Danny Jansen is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the strong outfield defense of Boston (#3-best on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen profiles as the 9th-best in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Because flyball pitchers hold a notable edge over flyball batters, Brayan Bello and his 50.6% underlying FB% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a strong spot today facing 3 opposing FB batters.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Trevor Story is penciled in 7th in the lineup in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 64% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Trevor Story hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Team Total Under in 19 of their last 32 games at home (+3.95 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 46 games (+11.60 Units / 23% ROI)
• Shane Baz has hit the Hits Allowed Under in 14 of his last 20 games (+7.30 Units / 30% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.29, Boston Red Sox 4.52

• Date: June 9, 2025
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Baz - Rays
  • Brayan Bello - Red Sox

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