Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction, Preview, & Odds – 9/6/2024

• Date: September 6, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Baz - Rays
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on September 6, 2024, both teams are looking to capitalize on their current standings. The Orioles hold a strong record of 81-60, positioning themselves as serious contenders in the American League East. Meanwhile, the Rays sit at 69-71, struggling to find consistency this season.

In their last game, the Orioles faced the Chicago White Sox and suffered a disappointing 8-1 loss, which snapped a brief winning streak. Conversely, the Rays lost a close game to the Minnesota Twins by a score of 4-3, marking a challenging stretch for both teams. For this matchup, Dean Kremer is projected to start for the Orioles, while Shane Baz will take the mound for the Rays.

Kremer, despite being ranked as the 172nd best starting pitcher in MLB, has had an average season with a 4.51 ERA. He projects to pitch 5.5 innings while allowing 2.6 earned runs, though he has struggled with allowing 5.3 hits and 1.6 walks on average. In contrast, Baz has shown flashes of brilliance with a solid 3.49 ERA, but his 4.66 xFIP indicates he may be due for a regression.

The Orioles boast the 4th best offense in MLB, largely driven by their league-leading 157 home runs. This power could be crucial against Baz, who has been prone to fly balls. Meanwhile, the Rays rank 27th in offense, which complicates their chances against a potent Orioles lineup. The projections favor the Orioles, who are expected to score around 4.96 runs, while the Rays are projected at 4.42 runs. With the Orioles' recent offensive prowess and home-field advantage, they look to bounce back and secure a victory in this crucial matchup.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The Baltimore Orioles have 7 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage over Shane Baz today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jonny Deluca's true offensive skill to be a .296, suggesting that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .041 discrepancy between that figure and his actual .255 wOBA.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Over his last 3 games started, Dean Kremer has experienced a sizeable fall off in his fastball spin rate: from 2271 rpm over the whole season to 2216 rpm recently.

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher who improves his spin rate will likely see improved results.

Eloy Jimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (88% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

The 4th-best projected lineup on the slate today in terms of overall batting ability belongs to the Baltimore Orioles.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Over in 51 of their last 90 games (+13.95 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 67 of their last 118 games (+12.10 Units / 9% ROI)
• Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Over in 33 of his last 44 games (+12.30 Units / 15% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.42 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.96

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.