Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction – 6/27/2025

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on June 27, 2025, the stakes are high for both teams. The Orioles, currently sitting at 34-46, are looking to turn around a disappointing season, while the Rays, with a solid record of 46-35, are in a good position to contend. This matchup is particularly intriguing as it marks the first game in their series.

On the mound, the Orioles will rely on Tomoyuki Sugano, who has had a mixed season with a Win/Loss record of 5-4 and an ERA of 3.55. However, his 4.52 xFIP suggests he may have been somewhat fortunate this year, and he projects to allow 2.9 earned runs with a concerning average of 5.9 hits allowed per outing. In contrast, the Rays will send out Ryan Pepiot, who has been more effective with a 5-6 record and an impressive ERA of 3.04. Pepiot's projections indicate he will likely allow 2.7 earned runs, making him a tough challenge for the Orioles' struggling offense.

Baltimore's lineup ranks 23rd in the league overall and in batting average, presenting a significant hurdle against Pepiot, who has been performing well. The Rays boast the 2nd best team batting average in MLB, which could spell trouble for Sugano. Despite the Orioles' strong bullpen, ranked 1st in MLB, they may struggle to contain the Rays' potent offense.

With a game total set at 9.0 runs, betting markets indicate a close contest, but the projections favor Tampa Bay to come out on top in this matchup. As the Orioles aim for an upset, they will need to find ways to capitalize on their chances while hoping Sugano can outperform expectations on the mound.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Ryan Pepiot is an extreme flyball pitcher (38.7% FB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #5 HR venue among all major league stadiums in this game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

In comparison to his 89.8-mph average last year, Brandon Lowe's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 92 mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The 7.6% Barrel% of the Tampa Bay Rays makes them the #25 club in the league this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

When estimating his strikeout skill, the leading projection system (THE BAT) places Tomoyuki Sugano in the 4th percentile among all starting pitchers in Major League Baseball.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Typically, bats like Cedric Mullins who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Ryan Pepiot.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create diminished performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

Cedric Mullins pulls many of his flyballs (36.9% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 41 of their last 70 games (+12.23 Units / 16% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 20 of their last 25 away games (+16.45 Units / 48% ROI)
• Danny Jansen has hit the Home Runs Over in 3 of his last 8 games (+17.10 Units / 214% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.66, Baltimore Orioles 4.7

• Date: June 27, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
  • Tomoyuki Sugano - Orioles

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