Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Pick – 6/29/2025

On June 29, 2025, the Baltimore Orioles will host the Tampa Bay Rays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in an American League East showdown. The game carries extra weight as it’s the third in their series, with both teams looking to make a statement. The Rays are riding a strong season with a record of 47-36, while the Orioles, struggling at 35-47, are trying to find their footing. In their last matchup, the Rays showcased their dominance with a win, adding pressure on the Orioles to respond.

Projected on the mound for Baltimore is Dean Kremer, whose statistics reflect a season filled with ups and downs. With a 6-7 record and a 4.60 ERA, he has shown flashes of potential but ranks as the 154th best starting pitcher in MLB. His 4.04 FIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky, hinting at potential for improvement. However, Kremer's projections for today indicate he may allow 3.2 earned runs over 5.5 innings, along with 6.0 hits and 1.5 walks, which could prove problematic against a potent Rays offense.

Tampa Bay counters with Taj Bradley, who comes in with a more favorable 5-5 record and an ERA of 4.57. Ranked 82nd among MLB starters, he has a track record of being above average. Bradley’s projections today show he could allow 3.0 earned runs over 5.3 innings, though he also tends to walk batters—a potential weakness against the Orioles’ low-walk offense.

Offensively, the Rays have performed well, ranking 9th overall in MLB and boasting the 2nd best team batting average. In contrast, the Orioles sit at 19th in overall offense and 23rd in batting average, which could be a decisive factor in this matchup. With the projected game total sitting at a high 9.5 runs, this game promises to be an exciting contest for fans and bettors alike.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley's curveball utilization has spiked by 5.7% from last season to this one (9% to 14.7%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Jonathan Aranda has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 11.3% seasonal rate to 20% in the past week's worth of games.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen grades out as the 5th-best in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Dean Kremer conceded a whopping 5 earned runs in his last game started.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

Gunnar Henderson has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.7-mph to 101.1-mph in the last week's worth of games.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Gary Sanchez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.9% — 95th percentile) and will be challenged by the league's 3rd-deepest LF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Game Total Under in 21 of their last 32 games (+9.10 Units / 26% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 19 of their last 25 away games (+14.60 Units / 44% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Over in 13 of his last 20 games (+13.65 Units / 61% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Predicted Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 5.01, Baltimore Orioles 5.01

• Date: June 29, 2025
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taj Bradley - Rays
  • Dean Kremer - Orioles

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