Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves Betting Pick & Preview – 6/16/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: June 16, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Rays
  • Hurston Waldrep - Braves

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves are set to host the Tampa Bay Rays on June 16, 2024, at Truist Park in what will be the third game of their interleague series. The Braves, with a strong 38-30 record, are having a good season, while the Rays, struggling at 33-38, are having a below-average year.

On the mound, the Braves will start Hurston Waldrep, a right-hander who has had a rough go this season with an 0-1 record and a horrendous 17.18 ERA. However, THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, suggests he has been unlucky and might perform better going forward, given his xFIP is significantly lower. Waldrep will face a Rays offense that ranks 26th in MLB, with a particularly poor power ranking at 30th in home runs. This matchup could play to Waldrep’s advantage, as he is a high-flyball pitcher facing a lineup that struggles to hit home runs.

For the Rays, Zach Eflin will take the mound. Eflin has been a more reliable starter with a 3-4 record and a 4.06 ERA over 12 starts. His advanced metrics indicate he’s also been a bit unlucky, with a 3.46 xERA suggesting he could improve. Eflin’s low-walk rate could be a double-edged sword against a Braves lineup that is impatient at the plate, ranking 5th in fewest walks.

Offensively, the Braves hold the edge with the 13th-best offense in MLB, compared to the Rays' much lower ranking. Atlanta’s Matt Olson has been particularly hot, boasting a .375 average and 1.194 OPS over the last week. On the other side, Alex Jackson has been the Rays' best hitter recently, with a 1.080 OPS in the past week.

The Braves' bullpen, ranked 9th by advanced-stat Power Rankings, is also stronger compared to the Rays' 17th-ranked bullpen. With a high game total set at 9.5 runs and the Braves favored slightly with a moneyline of -120, this game is expected to be a close contest. However, given the Braves' stronger season, better bullpen, and solid offensive contributions, they seem to have a slight edge in this matchup.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zach Eflin has been given a shorter leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 7.3 fewer adjusted pitches-per-game than average.

• Pitchers with a shorter leash are more likely to get pulled earlier in games and record fewer outs.

Despite posting a .267 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Randy Arozarena has experienced some negative variance given the .071 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .338.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 hitters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Jose Siri, Josh Lowe, Alex Jackson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Jarred Kelenic is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Atlanta Braves' bullpen grades out as the 9th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 62 games (+16.00 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 37 of their last 54 games (+20.10 Units / 32% ROI)
• Matt Olson has hit the Runs Under in 32 of his last 50 games (+10.60 Units / 17% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.9 vs Atlanta Braves 4.53

Get daily MLB picks here.