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Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
The Tampa Bay Rays were the second-place team in the AL East last season, finishing just behind the Baltimore Orioles. But the Rays could not turn their regular season success into meaningful success in the playoffs. They lost in the Wild Card round in a sweep to the Texas Rangers, who went onto win the World Series themselves.
This year, the Rays will look to get deeper into the postseason, but there are questions as to whether or not they can get there in the first place. Some key departures and the uncertainty surrounding Wander Franco will make this season one that could go either really well or really poorly, with very little in between.
2024 Over/Under Season Win Total Odds
Tampa Bay Rays Futures Betting Odds
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Standings Data
| 2023 | |
|---|---|
| Actual Record | 99-63 |
| Run Differential | +195 |
| Pythagorean W/L | 100-62 |
| BaseRuns Record | 100-62 |
| BaseRuns Run Differential | +183 |
Tampa Bay Rays Picks, Predictions & Betting News
Offseason Transactions
Key Additions: Ryan Pepiot, Jonny DeLuca
Key Departures: Tyler Glasnow, Manuel Margot, Christian Bethancourt
The biggest news for the Rays in the offseason was the departure of Tyler Glasnow, who joined the embarrassment of riches that is the LA Dodgers. Glasnow, when healthy, has been one of the best arms in Major League Baseball in recent years. That is one of the main reasons that the Rays are expected to take a step back this season.
In terms of additions to their roster, Ryan Pepiot isn’t a terrible player to bring in, as he and Jonny DeLuca came over in the Glasnow trade. But those acquisitions feel very on-brand for the Rays, as they are not overly expensive and are not all that impressive either when compared to the moves made by the Yankees in the offseason.
Offensive Stats
| 2023 (Rank) | 2022 (Rank) | |
|---|---|---|
| Batting Average (BA) | .260 (3rd) | .239 (T-17th) |
| On-Base Percentage (OBP) | .331 (T-4th) | .309 (20th) |
| Slugging Percentage (SLG) | .445 (4th) | .377 (T-24th) |
| Weighted On-Base Avg (wOBA) | .335 (4th) | .302 (T-23rd) |
| Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+) | 118 (2nd) | 101 (T-15th) |
| Batting Avg on Balls In Play (BABIP) | .308 (T-4th) | .295 (T-9th) |
| Strikeout Percentage (K%) | 23.0% (16th) | 23.2% (19th) |
| Walk Percentage (BB%) | 8.3% (T-22nd) | 8.3% (T-11th) |
The Rays were lethal offensively last season, ranking fourth in baseball in runs scored and trailing only the Braves, Dodgers, and Rangers. That is some elite company for an offense, as there were not many weak points in their lineup. A prolonged absence for Franco could cause them some problems, but the framework for this roster is largely the same as it was a season ago and that is going to be important if the pitching staff is weaker than it was last year.
Pitching Stats
| 2023 (Rank) | 2022 (Rank) | |
|---|---|---|
| Earned Run Average (ERA) | 3.87 (T-5th) | 3.41 (4th) |
| Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) | 3.80 (1st) | 3.68 (8th) |
| Adj. Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) | 3.84 (1st) | 3.71 (9th) |
| Strikeout Percentage (K%) | 25.1% (T-2nd) | 23.3% (11th) |
| Walk Percentage (BB%) | 7.3% (3rd) | 6.5% (1st) |
| Left On Base Percentage (LOB%) | 72.4% (16th) | 74.6% (T-6th) |
Pitching has been the strength of the Rays organization for many years and last year was no exception. They were dominant on the hill last season, ranking first in FIP and xFIP and striking out over a quarter of the batters they faced as a team. But with Glasnow all the way across the country this season, the rest of the Rays rotation will need to step up if Tampa is going to continue to give opponents fits with their pitching.
Positives & Negatives
For the Rays, the biggest positive going into 2024 is the fact that they still have a lot of talent going into this season. Players like Randy Arozarenza and Brandon Lowe will continue to anchor their lineup, while there is still a ton of quality pitching on the roster despite Glasnow’s departure. That should be enough to make this team dangerous once again.
But the top negative for this roster is the fact that they aren’t likely to be quite what they were last year. Between trading Glasnow to the Dodgers and Wander Franco being in legal trouble, the Rays won’t have the pieces they need to be near the 100-win mark again this season. In such a loaded division that could mean having to set their sights on the Wild Card race before the season even starts.
Tampa Bay Rays Win Total Pick & Prediction: Over 84.5
While the Rays are not going to be quite as good as they were last season, they are still going to be a top-half team in the AL East in our opinion. We will take the over on the Rays season win total, as they should settle in around 90 wins despite losing some considerable talent from last year’s team. As long as their starting rotation stays healthy, that is.
