Tampa Bay Rays at Toronto Blue Jays Pick For 5/18/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: May 18, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zach Eflin - Rays
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

On May 18, 2024, the Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays at Rogers Centre. As the home team, the Blue Jays will aim to improve their season record of 19-24, while the Rays, the away team, look to continue their above-average season with a record of 24-22. This American League East matchup promises an exciting game.

The Blue Jays are projected to start right-handed pitcher Kevin Gausman, who has shown above-average performance according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings. With a record of 2-3 and an ERA of 4.95, Gausman has been slightly unlucky this season. However, his 3.49 xFIP suggests that he is likely to perform better going forward. On average, Gausman is projected to pitch 5.9 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs and striking out 6.2 batters.

Opposing Gausman on the mound will be the Rays' right-handed pitcher, Zach Eflin. Eflin has been performing well this season with a record of 3-4 and an ERA of 3.91. According to our Power Rankings, Eflin is ranked as the 32nd best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his projections for this game indicate that he may struggle, with an average of 5.5 innings pitched, 2.5 earned runs allowed, and 4.5 strikeouts.

The Blue Jays offense ranks as the 20th best in MLB this season, while the Rays offense ranks slightly higher at 16th. However, the Blue Jays have an impressive team batting average, ranking 5th in the league. On the other hand, the Rays have shown power at the plate, ranking 4th in team home runs and 2nd in stolen bases.

In terms of bullpen strength, our Power Rankings consider the Blue Jays bullpen as the 14th best in MLB, while the Rays bullpen ranks 10th. This suggests that both teams have solid relief pitching to rely on.

The Blue Jays' best hitter this season has been Bo Bichette, who has been on a hot streak over the last seven games. Bichette has recorded 7 hits, 1 home run, and 1 stolen base, with a batting average of .368 and an OPS of 1.033. For the Rays, Yandy Diaz has been their standout hitter in the last seven games, with 10 hits, 6 runs, 7 RBIs, and 2 home runs, boasting a batting average of .323 and an OPS of .995.

With a Game Total of 7.5 runs, this game is expected to be low-scoring. The Blue Jays are the favorites with a moneyline of -135, implying a 55% chance of winning. The Rays, with a moneyline of +115, have a 45% implied win probability. These odds suggest that the game is likely to be closely contested.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zach Eflin has tallied 17.7 outs per outing this year, grading out in the 85th percentile.

• A pitcher who averages more outs per start than his Outs prop may be a good bet to go over, and visa-versa for the under.

Jose Siri's speed has dropped off this year. His 29.78 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 29.03 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen grades out as the 10th-best in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Considering the 1.09 discrepancy between Kevin Gausman's 4.95 ERA and his 3.86 FIP, it's safe to say he's been one of the least fortunate pitchers in Major League Baseball this year and should positively regress the rest of the season.

• Pitchers that are underperforming should be expected to pitch better going forward, which can create value if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date underperformance.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.395) provides evidence that George Springer has had some very poor luck this year with his .252 actual wOBA.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 92nd percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Under in 22 of their last 34 games (+8.70 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Team Total Over in 9 of their last 12 games (+5.40 Units / 38% ROI)
• Josh Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 2 of his last 4 games (+10.00 Units / 250% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.8 vs Toronto Blue Jays 3.88

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