Tampa Bay Rays at St. Louis Cardinals Pick & Prediction – 8/8/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals Details

• Date: August 8, 2024
• Venue: Busch Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Baz - Rays
  • Kyle Gibson - Cardinals

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview

The St. Louis Cardinals, currently sitting at 59-56, are hoping to gain ground as they take on the Tampa Bay Rays, who have a record of 57-56, in the third game of their interleague series at Busch Stadium on August 8, 2024. Both teams have been battling for consistency this season, and neither is currently in contention for a division title. The Cardinals will look to capitalize on the momentum from their last game, where they narrowly edged out the Rays.

On the mound, St. Louis will send Kyle Gibson to the hill. Despite being ranked as the 153rd best starting pitcher in MLB, Gibson has managed a respectable 7-4 record with a 4.04 ERA. However, his projections indicate he may have been somewhat fortunate this season, with an expected ERA (xERA) of 4.79 suggesting he could face challenges moving forward. Gibson projects to pitch 5.6 innings while allowing around 2.7 earned runs, but he also has the alarming statistic of potentially allowing 5.5 hits per game.

The Rays counter with Shane Baz, who has struggled this season with a 0-1 record over just five starts and a solid ERA of 3.60. However, his expected FIP of 4.31 indicates that he, too, may face difficulties ahead. Baz is projected to pitch only 4.7 innings, which is less than ideal for a starter, and could give up 2.4 earned runs while allowing 4.6 hits.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 20th in MLB, including a 22nd rank in home runs, while the Rays find themselves slightly below, ranking 21st overall. The Cardinals will be looking for a significant contribution from Tommy Pham, who has been their best hitter recently. Meanwhile, Josh Lowe has been leading Tampa’s offense, giving the Rays some hope.

With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, this matchup appears to be a tightly contested affair. The Cardinals hold a slight edge in the moneyline at -130, reflecting their modest advantage in the projections. As both teams vie for a winning record, fans can expect an engaging game filled with strategic play and potential fireworks.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Shane Baz's 95.5-mph fastball velocity this year grades out in the 93rd percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Ben Rortvedt has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 87.3-mph dropping to 79.1-mph over the last week.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

In today's matchup, Yandy Diaz is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 41.4% rate (98th percentile).

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Kyle Gibson has averaged 92.1 adjusted pitches per outing this year, ranking in the 77th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Nolan Gorman is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#3-best of all teams on the slate today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

The St. Louis Cardinals (21.7 K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are projected to have the 5th-least strikeout-heavy batting order on the slate.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Game Total Over in 25 of their last 42 games (+5.90 Units / 13% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 61 of their last 101 games (+17.90 Units / 15% ROI)
• Alec Burleson has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 15 games (+8.00 Units / 34% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs St. Louis Cardinals Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.43 vs St. Louis Cardinals 4.47

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.