Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners Pick & Prediction – 8/28/2024

• Date: August 28, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays
  • Luis Castillo - Mariners

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on August 28, 2024, both teams are in a somewhat precarious position in the standings, with the Mariners sitting at 67-66 and the Rays at 66-66. This matchup marks the third game in their series, with the Mariners looking to bounce back after a narrow 3-2 loss to the Rays in their previous encounter.

On the mound, the Mariners are projected to start Luis Castillo, who has had a mixed season with a 10-12 record and a respectable ERA of 3.66. However, Castillo's recent performance was less than stellar; he allowed 5 earned runs in his last outing on August 23. Contrastingly, Drew Rasmussen of the Rays has been solid, boasting an impressive ERA of 2.70, although he has struggled with limited innings pitched this season.

The Mariners' offense has been underwhelming, ranking 28th in MLB, particularly struggling with a team batting average that sits dead last. In contrast, the Rays' offense, while also below average at 26th, has shown some life in the stolen base department, ranking 4th overall.

The projections indicate that the Mariners are favored to win this game, with a projected team total of 3.89 runs, while the Rays are expected to score only 3.11 runs. Given that the Mariners have a stronger bullpen ranked 23rd compared to the Rays' top-ranked unit, they may have the edge in a close game. Additionally, with Castillo's ability to strike out batters, he could exploit the Rays' weaknesses, particularly against high-strikeout pitchers.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Among all the teams on the slate today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Tampa Bay Rays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

In the past week, Brandon Lowe's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 13.7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Christopher Morel).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Compared to average, Luis Castillo has been given more leash than the typical pitcher this year, recording an additional 5.8 adjusted pitches each outing.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Dylan Moore has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph dropping to 82.9-mph over the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Seattle Mariners' bullpen projects as the 8th-worst out of all the teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 29 of their last 45 games at home (+12.70 Units / 25% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 81 of their last 132 games (+26.35 Units / 17% ROI)
• Randy Arozarena has hit the Hits Over in 18 of his last 23 games at home (+8.65 Units / 19% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.11 vs Seattle Mariners 3.89

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