Tampa Bay Rays at Seattle Mariners Pick & Prediction – 8/26/2024

• Date: August 26, 2024
• Venue: T-Mobile Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
  • Bryce Miller - Mariners

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners Betting Preview

As the Seattle Mariners host the Tampa Bay Rays on August 26, 2024, both teams find themselves in similar positions, sitting around .500 with records of 66-65 and 65-65, respectively. While neither team is in contention for the division title, they each aim to improve their standings as the season winds down.

In their most recent outings, the Mariners got a win over the San Francisco Giants, while the Rays dropped a tight game against the mighty Los Angeles Dodgers. The matchup is intriguing, featuring Mariners' right-hander Bryce Miller, who has demonstrated solid performance this year, holding a 3.32 ERA and ranking as the 61st best starting pitcher in MLB. However, his xFIP of 3.91 indicates he may not be as effective going forward.

On the other side, Ryan Pepiot of the Rays comes in with a slightly better Power Rankings position at 45th among starters, sporting a 3.65 ERA. Pepiot's high strikeout rate (26.2 K%) could prove advantageous against a Mariners offense that leads the league in strikeouts, but struggles overall, ranking 27th in offensive performance.

Although the Mariners have a low implied team total of 3.62 runs for this game, their pitching advantage may tilt the scales in their favor. The projections suggest a close battle, but with both teams underperforming offensively—especially the Rays, who rank 24th in MLB offensive metrics—this matchup could hinge on which pitcher can limit damage. The Game Total is set at a low 7.0 runs, emphasizing the potential for a tightly contested game.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

With 6 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected offense, Ryan Pepiot encounters a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

In the past 7 days, Josh Lowe's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.1% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen grades out as the 3rd-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Seattle Mariners:

Bryce Miller’s fastball spin rate over his last 3 GS (2535 rpm) has been considerably better than than his seasonal rate (2484 rpm).

• Spin rate is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose spin rate worsens will likely see worsened results as well.

Dominic Canzone has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 94.3-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 90-mph figure.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.6% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Seattle Mariners have hit the Game Total Under in 38 of their last 62 games at home (+13.70 Units / 20% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 72 of their last 120 games (+20.85 Units / 15% ROI)
• Yandy Diaz has hit the Total Bases Under in 16 of his last 20 games (+9.60 Units / 30% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.57 vs Seattle Mariners 3.71

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