Tampa Bay Rays at Pittsburgh Pirates Pick & Prediction – 6/23/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Details

• Date: June 23, 2024
• Venue: PNC Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Civale - Rays
  • Bailey Falter - Pirates

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Betting Preview

As the Pittsburgh Pirates and Tampa Bay Rays gear up for their June 23, 2024, clash at PNC Park, it's clear that both teams are having subpar seasons. The Pirates, boasting a 36-39 record, continue to struggle and find themselves in the lower half of the standings. Meanwhile, the Rays, with a 37-39 record, have been the epitome of mediocrity this season. Despite their records, this interleague series has produced some intriguing matchups, and today's game promises more of the same.

The Pirates will send left-hander Bailey Falter to the mound, while the Rays counter with right-hander Aaron Civale. According to the leading MLB projection system, THE BAT X, Falter’s team is favored to secure the win, projecting a 61% victory chance, compared to their implied win probability of 58%. Civale, despite being labeled as an average pitcher by advanced metrics, will have to contend with a Pirates offense that ranks 25th in batting average and 24th in home runs, both considered poor rankings.

Offensively, the Pirates have struggled mightily, but Bryan Reynolds has been a bright spot over the last week. In his last six games, Reynolds has posted a .348 batting average with two home runs and a stellar 1.162 OPS. This recent hot streak could prove pivotal against Civale and the Rays’ pitching staff.

On the flip side, Tampa Bay's offense hasn't fared much better, ranking 21st in batting average and 27th in home runs. However, they excel in speed, ranking 6th in stolen bases. Randy Arozarena has been a standout performer for the Rays, hitting .381 with an OPS of 1.328 over the last week. His three stolen bases during this span highlight the dynamic threat he poses on the basepaths.

Betting markets are leaning slightly towards the Pirates, with a moneyline of -150, implying a 58% win probability. In contrast, the Rays sit at +130, corresponding to a 42% win probability. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, an average expectation for a matchup featuring two struggling offenses and middle-of-the-pack pitching.

The Pirates are projected to score 4.75 runs, which is high for them, while the Rays are projected to score 3.97 runs. With both teams looking to gain any edge, it will be intriguing to see if the Pirates' hit-first approach or the Rays' small-ball tactics will win out in this battle.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Ben Rortvedt).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Pittsburgh Pirates:

The 8.4% Barrel% of the Pittsburgh Pirates grades them out as the #8 offense in MLB this year by this standard.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Pittsburgh Pirates have hit the Team Total Under in 46 of their last 76 games (+12.55 Units / 14% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 34 of their last 56 games (+10.90 Units / 17% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Pittsburgh Pirates Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.97 vs Pittsburgh Pirates 4.75

Visit the MLB picks and predictions section for the rest of today's games.