Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics Prediction For 8/20/2024

• Date: August 20, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Baz - Rays
  • Joey Estes - Athletics

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

The Oakland Athletics will host the Tampa Bay Rays on August 20, 2024, in a matchup that highlights two teams struggling to find their footing this season. The Athletics sit at 54-71, while the Rays are slightly better at 62-62. Both teams are well out of contention for their respective divisions, emphasizing the importance of every game as they look to end the season on a positive note.

In their last outing, the Athletics faced the Rays, with the A's grabbing a 3-0 win at home. Joey Estes is set to take the mound for Oakland. The right-hander has had a mixed season, with a 5-5 record and an average ERA of 4.72. While his advanced-stat Power Rankings place him as the 252nd best starting pitcher in MLB, he may find some solace in facing a Rays offense that ranks 24th overall. Estes is a high-flyball pitcher, which could play to his advantage against a team that has struggled to convert flyballs into home runs this season.

On the other side, Shane Baz will start for Tampa Bay. Though he has been below average this year with a 0-2 record and a 4.21 ERA, the projections suggest that he may allow 2.2 earned runs over an average of 4.9 innings pitched. Baz, like Estes, has also struggled with allowing hits and walks, which could lead to trouble against a powerful Athletics lineup that ranks 4th in home runs with 132 this season.

With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, oddsmakers believe this matchup could be closely contested. The Athletics currently hold a moneyline of +100, reflecting a 48% implied win probability, while the Rays are at -120 with a 52% implied win probability. Given the Athletics’ recent offensive surge, highlighted by Seth Brown’s impressive performance over the last week, they may just have the edge needed to capitalize on a struggling Rays offense.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Among every team in action today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jose Siri has big-time power (92nd percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (34.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Joey Estes struggles to strike batters out (3rd percentile K%) — great news for Siri.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Josh Lowe, Jose Siri, Alex Jackson).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Joey Estes is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.6% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #30 HR venue among all major league stadiums today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

This season, Brent Rooker has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 97.3 mph compared to last year's 94.9 mph mark.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen projects as the 8th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 28 of their last 52 games (+10.75 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 67 of their last 110 games (+21.95 Units / 17% ROI)
• Brandon Lowe has hit the Home Runs Over in 14 of his last 46 games (+23.10 Units / 50% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.15 vs Oakland Athletics 3.93

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