Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics Pick For 8/21/2024

• Date: August 21, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
  • Mitch Spence - Athletics

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Oakland Athletics prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on August 21, 2024, the stakes may feel a bit lackluster given both teams' standings. The Athletics sit at 54-72 this season, struggling to find their rhythm, while the Rays are slightly better at 63-62, but still facing challenges in their quest for a playoff spot. This matchup becomes even more interesting as it follows a tightly contested game where the Athletics lost to the Rays 1-0 just a day prior.

On the mound, the Athletics will send Mitch Spence, who has struggled recently, including a disappointing outing where he allowed five earned runs in just three innings in his last start on August 15. His 4.64 ERA is indicative of an average season, and while his xERA of 3.88 suggests he might improve, he faces a tough challenge in the Rays' lineup. The Athletics' offense has shown some power, ranking 4th in MLB with 132 home runs, but they also rank a dismal 27th in batting average, showcasing their inconsistency.

Conversely, Ryan Pepiot will take the ball for Tampa Bay, coming off a strong performance where he pitched five innings without allowing an earned run. With a 3.69 ERA and an impressive 26.5% strikeout rate, Pepiot presents a significant challenge for the Athletics' high-strikeout offense, ranked 2nd in the league. The projections indicate a close game, with the Rays expected to score around 4.16 runs while the Athletics are projected for just 3.66 runs.

Overall, the Athletics’ chances hinge on their ability to capitalize on Pepiot’s flyball tendencies and their own power at the plate. However, with their recent struggles and Pepiot's upward trajectory, the Rays look to hold the advantage in this matchup.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Ryan Pepiot will hold the platoon advantage over 6 opposing bats in today's game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Brandon Lowe has a good chance to have the upper hand against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Oakland Athletics has just 1 same-handed RP.

• Hitters perform worse against pitchers of the same handedness (i.e. righty-vs-righty), and being able to avoid those matchups against the bullpen boosts performance and creates hidden edge.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 bats in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Alex Jackson, Josh Lowe, Christopher Morel).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Among all starters, Mitch Spence's fastball velocity of 90.3 mph is in the 7th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

J.J. Bleday is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#2-best of the day).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen profiles as the 9th-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 42 games (+11.25 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 60 of their last 102 games (+15.55 Units / 13% ROI)
• Jonny Deluca has hit the Runs Under in 20 of his last 24 games (+10.40 Units / 19% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.16 vs Oakland Athletics 3.66

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