Tampa Bay Rays at Oakland Athletics Best Bet – 8/19/2024

• Date: August 19, 2024
• Venue: Oakland Coliseum
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taj Bradley - Rays
  • Joe Boyle - Athletics

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland Athletics Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland Athletics Betting Preview

As the Tampa Bay Rays head to Oakland to face the Athletics on August 19, 2024, both teams are looking to gain some momentum in a matchup that could tilt the balance in the AL. The Athletics, struggling this season with a 53-71 record, are hoping to turn around their fortunes against the Rays, who sit slightly above .500 at 62-61. While the Rays have been somewhat inconsistent, they are not in danger of being eliminated from postseason contention.

In their last outing, the Rays put together a strong performance against the Arizona Diamondbacks, showcasing the talent of their lineup as they continue to battle for wildcard positioning. Meanwhile, the Athletics are coming off a loss to the San Francisco Giants and need a win to regain some confidence.

On the mound, Joe Boyle is projected to start for Oakland. His 7.39 ERA this year signifies a challenging season, although advanced projections suggest he may be due for some better luck with a lower xFIP of 5.29. Nevertheless, he has an unimpressive Win/Loss record of 2-5 across 8 starts, and his ability to navigate through innings is questionable, averaging only 4.7 innings per start.

On the other side, the Rays will counter with Taj Bradley, whose 3.49 ERA reflects more stability in his performance this year. Ranking 61st among MLB starters, he has shown the ability to strike out hitters with a 28.5% strikeout rate, which is promising against the Athletics' high-strikeout offense. Given the Athletics rank 2nd in MLB for team strikeouts, Bradley may find this matchup advantageous.

Additionally, the Athletics' offense ranks 18th in MLB, buoyed by their power potential with a 4th ranking in home runs, while the Rays are struggling offensively, sitting 25th in overall rankings. With a Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, betting markets view this as a close contest, evidenced by the Athletics’ +115 moneyline against the Rays’ -135.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley has averaged 92 adjusted pitches per GS this year, grading out in the 78th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Despite posting a .239 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Jonny Deluca has had bad variance on his side given the .056 deviation between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .295.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 4 batters in their projected offense today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Josh Lowe, Ben Rortvedt, Kameron Misner, Christopher Morel).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Oakland Athletics:

Joe Boyle's high usage rate of his fastball (58.9% this year) is likely dampening his results, since they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so pitchers who rely too heavily on them tend to be less effective than they otherwise would be.

Lawrence Butler has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (57% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup today.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Oakland Athletics' bullpen profiles as the 7th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Oakland Athletics have hit the Moneyline in 24 of their last 45 games (+8.65 Units / 18% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 74 of their last 121 games (+23.65 Units / 17% ROI)
• Shea Langeliers has hit the Hits Under in his last 6 games at home (+7.75 Units / 128% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Oakland Athletics Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.89 vs Oakland Athletics 3.77

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