Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees Prediction For 7/20/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Details

• Date: July 20, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taj Bradley - Rays
  • Nestor Cortes - Yankees

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Betting Preview

The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays meet for the second game of their series on July 20, 2024, at Yankee Stadium. The Yankees, riding high with a 59-40 record, are having a stellar season, while the Rays are treading water at 48-49. This American League East matchup sees the Yankees as the betting favorites with a moneyline of -150, translating to an implied win probability of 58%.

Nestor Cortes, the Yankees' left-handed ace, takes the mound against Taj Bradley for the Rays. According to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, Cortes is ranked as the 35th best starting pitcher in the league. Despite a 4-8 win/loss record, his 3.67 ERA indicates he’s been effective. Cortes is projected to pitch 5.7 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, and striking out 6.0 batters—numbers that bode well for the Yankees. His high-flyball tendency (46 FB%) could work to his advantage against a Rays lineup that ranks 26th in team home runs.

Bradley, on the other hand, is ranked 56th and boasts an impressive 2.90 ERA. However, his peripheral stats suggest some luck has been involved; his 3.67 FIP points to potential regression. Bradley is projected to pitch only 4.9 innings, allowing 2.8 earned runs, and striking out 5.4 batters. Facing the power-laden Yankees offense, which ranks 2nd in team home runs, Bradley could be in for a rough outing given his 37 FB%.

Offensively, the Yankees have the upper hand. They rank 4th overall, 11th in batting average, and 2nd in home runs. The Rays' offense, however, sits at 22nd overall and 20th in batting average. The Yankees' superior lineup is expected to capitalize on Bradley's vulnerabilities, with a projected team total of 4.35 runs.

Both bullpens will play a crucial role. The Yankees’ bullpen ranks 18th, while the Rays’ ranks 10th, which could be pivotal in the later innings. The Game Total stands at 8.0 runs, reflecting an expected average scoring affair.

With a strong lineup and a favorable pitching matchup, the Yankees are well-positioned to take this game, bolstering their playoff aspirations and continuing their impressive season.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley's 95.6-mph fastball velocity this year is in the 90th percentile out of all SPs.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Jose Siri has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.3-mph average to last season's 94-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Isaac Paredes pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (46.1% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear baseball's 7th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Nestor Cortes is an extreme flyball pitcher (43.9% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and will be disadvantaged pitching in the #6 HR venue in the majors in this matchup.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

In terms of his home runs, Trent Grisham has been unlucky since the start of last season. His 16.5 HR per 600 plate appearances rate has been deflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 23.7.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The New York Yankees projected batting order projects as the strongest of the day in terms of overall batting ability.

• A pitcher who faces a strong opposing offense will be more likely to underperform his usual performance, particularly in terms of hits and runs, in that game.

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Run Line in 52 of their last 98 games (+11.95 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 48 of their last 77 games (+17.25 Units / 19% ROI)
• Aaron Judge has hit the Hits Over in 35 of his last 47 games (+18.15 Units / 19% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4 vs New York Yankees 5.24

Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.