Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees Pick & Prediction – 4/21/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Overview

• Date: April 21, 2024
• Venue: Yankee Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Civale - Rays
  • Luis Gil - Yankees
• Run Line: Rays 1.5 -180, Yankees -1.5 155
• Money Line: Rays 110, Yankees -130
• Total (Over/Under):8.5 -110

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Win Probabilities

Implied Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 46%
• New York Yankees - 54%

Projected Win %:

• Tampa Bay Rays - 38.09%
• New York Yankees - 61.91%

Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees Game Preview & Prediction

On April 21, 2024, the New York Yankees will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium in an American League East matchup. The Yankees, with a season record of 14-7, are having a great season, while the Rays, with a record of 12-10, are having an above-average season.

The game will feature a pitching duel between Luis Gil of the Yankees and Aaron Civale of the Rays. Both right-handed pitchers have been performing well this season. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Gil is ranked as the #79 best starting pitcher in MLB, while Civale is ranked #78. This suggests that both pitchers are above average.

Gil has started three games this year, with a Win/Loss record of 0-1 and an ERA of 3.86. However, his 4.66 xFIP indicates that he may have been lucky so far and is likely to perform worse going forward. Civale, on the other hand, has started four games with a record of 2-1 and an impressive ERA of 2.74. His 4.29 FIP suggests that he may have been lucky as well and could see a decline in performance.

In terms of offense, the Yankees rank as the 7th best team in MLB, while the Rays rank 21st. However, the Rays have a higher ranking in team batting average, sitting at 9th, while the Yankees rank 29th. The Rays also excel in team home runs, ranking 4th, and stolen bases, ranking 2nd, while the Yankees rank 8th and 20th in these categories, respectively.

The Yankees' best hitter this season has been Juan Soto, while the Rays' best hitter has been Richie Palacios. However, over the last seven games, Soto has been the standout performer for the Yankees, recording 9 hits, 4 runs, 5 RBIs, and 2 home runs with a batting average of .409 and a 1.273 OPS. Palacios, on the other hand, has recorded 5 hits, 6 runs, and 1 home run with a batting average of .385 and a 1.236 OPS over the last week.

The game total for today's matchup is set at 8.5 runs, indicating an average expectation for scoring. The Yankees are favored with a moneyline of -130, implying a 54% chance of winning, while the Rays have a moneyline of +110, giving them a 46% chance of winning.

Based on the projections, the Yankees have a higher win probability than their implied win probability. However, with the Rays' strong offense and Civale's impressive performance, this game is expected to be a close matchup.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Out of every team in action today, the 4th-best infield defense is that of the the Tampa Bay Rays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Whalloping 2 home runs in the past week, Amed Rosario has been on fire in recent games.

• Strong recent performance may mean the player is seeing the ball well and will continue to hit well in the near-term.

Isaac Paredes pulls a lot of his flyballs (43.8% — 100th percentile) but may find it hard to clear MLB's 7th-deepest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes New York Yankees:

Luis Gil is projected to strikeout 5.8 batters in this matchup, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, and more.

Against the weak defense of Tampa Bay's 3rd-worst infield on the slate today), Juan Soto has a very favorable matchup given his extreme groundball tendencies.

• This player's skill set matches up well with the opposing team's defensive weakness, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Projected catcher Jose Trevino projects as an elite pitch framer, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Pitch framing is a catcher's ability to make a ball look like a strike to the umpire, "stealing" strikes for his pitcher. This leads to more positive outcomes (like strikeouts) and fewer negative ones (like walks or earned runs).

Game Trends

• The New York Yankees have hit the Game Total Over in 20 of their last 32 games at home (+7.90 Units / 22% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 17 of their last 24 away games (+11.95 Units / 38% ROI)
• Gleyber Torres has hit the Hits Under in 4 of his last 5 games at home (+5.50 Units / 110% ROI)

Rays vs Yankees Prediction: Rays 3.77 - Yankees 4.58

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.