Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins Prediction For 6/18/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Details

• Date: June 18, 2024
• Venue: Target Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Aaron Civale - Rays
  • Pablo Lopez - Twins

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Betting Preview

Fans can look forward to an intriguing matchup on June 18, 2024, as the Minnesota Twins host the Tampa Bay Rays at Target Field. The Twins, currently boasting a 40-32 record, are having a solid season and will look to continue their momentum after a narrow 8-7 victory over the Athletics on June 16. Meanwhile, the Rays, who sit at 34-38, managed to pull off a win against the Braves, defeating them 8-6 in their previous game.

The pitching duel features the Twins' Pablo Lopez and the Rays' Aaron Civale. Lopez, ranked as the 24th best starting pitcher by advanced-stat Power Rankings, has a strong projection for today’s game despite his 5.33 ERA. His 3.34 xFIP suggests he has been unlucky this season and is likely to perform better going forward. Lopez shows an impressive strikeout rate of 26.3%, which may benefit him against a high-strikeout Rays offense. Additionally, Lopez’s tendency to induce flyballs should work in his favor, given Tampa Bay’s lackluster power, as they rank 29th in MLB for home runs.

On the other side, Civale has struggled with a 5.20 ERA but projects to allow only 2.8 earned runs on average today, indicating potential improvement. However, his high-flyball tendencies could be problematic against a powerful Twins lineup that ranks 6th in home runs. Factoring in Civale's below-average strikeout rate, Minnesota seems poised to exploit these weaknesses.

Offensively, the Twins hold the upper hand with the 12th best lineup, featuring notable performances from Carlos Correa, who has been scorching hot over the last week with a .556 batting average and 1.475 OPS. In contrast, the Rays rank 26th in offense, with Isaac Paredes being their standout hitter, producing a .281 batting average and .822 OPS for the season.

Overall, the Twins are the favorites with a moneyline of -165, backed by THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, which gives them a projected win probability of 58%. The Rays will have to overcome significant odds as underdogs with a projected win probability of 42%. Expect a competitive game but lean towards the Twins capitalizing on their strengths and finishing ahead.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Aaron Civale has used his cut-fastball 5.9% less often this year (31.5%) than he did last season (37.4%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

This year, there has been a decline in Yandy Diaz's footspeed with his Statcast Sprint Speed dropping from 26.61 ft/sec last year to 25.26 ft/sec currently.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Placing 6th-lowest in the majors since the start of last season, Tampa Bay Rays batters collectively have notched a 11.5° launch angle on their hardest-contacted balls (an advanced stat to study power skills).

• If you hit the ball hard but straight at the ground, it doesn't do you any good. A player that is skilled at lifting his hardest hit balls into the air stands the best chance of turning them into extra-base hits or home runs.

Quick Takes Minnesota Twins:

Pablo Lopez was firing on all cylinders in his previous outing and allowed 2 ER.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Royce Lewis has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average since the start of last season; his .319 mark is a good deal higher than his .253 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Minnesota Twins' bullpen grades out as the 10th-best among all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Minnesota Twins have hit the Moneyline in 33 of their last 53 games (+7.75 Units / 10% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 32 of their last 50 games (+13.15 Units / 22% ROI)
• Josh Lowe has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 11 of his last 14 games (+7.90 Units / 50% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Minnesota Twins Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.98 vs Minnesota Twins 4.55

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