Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins Best Bet – 6/4/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 4, 2024
• Venue: LoanDepot Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
  • Jesus Luzardo - Marlins

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Betting Preview

In a highly anticipated Interleague matchup, the Miami Marlins will host the Tampa Bay Rays at LoanDepot Park on June 4, 2024. The Marlins, who are having a terrible season with a record of 21-39, will be looking to turn things around against the Rays, who have had a below-average season with a record of 29-31.

On the mound for the Marlins will be left-handed pitcher Jesus Luzardo. Luzardo, who is projected to start, has started 9 games this year and has a win/loss record of 2-4. Despite his above-average ERA of 4.18, his 3.65 FIP suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to perform better going forward. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Luzardo is the #80 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is above average.

Opposing Luzardo will be right-handed pitcher Ryan Pepiot of the Rays. Pepiot has started 9 games this year and has a win/loss record of 3-2. With an ERA of 3.88, Pepiot has been performing well. His 2.97 xERA suggests that he has been unlucky and is likely to improve in future performances. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Pepiot is the #45 best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating that he is good.

The Marlins offense has struggled this season, ranking as the #29 best in MLB. However, they have shown strength in team batting average, ranking #3 in MLB. On the other hand, their power has been lacking, ranking #28 in team home runs and their stolen base ranking is also low at #25.

The Rays offense, while not exceptional, has performed better than the Marlins, ranking as the #24 best in MLB. They have excelled in team batting average, ranking #9 in MLB. Their power has been impressive, ranking #4 in team home runs, and their stolen base ranking is strong at #2.

In terms of bullpen strength, the Marlins rank #28 in MLB according to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, while the Rays rank #7. This suggests that the Rays have an advantage in the later innings of the game.

With Luzardo's high-flyball tendencies and the Rays' powerful offense, the Marlins may face challenges in preventing home runs. Conversely, Pepiot's high-flyball tendencies may work in his favor against the Marlins' lackluster power.

Overall, this matchup presents an interesting dynamic between the struggling Marlins and the slightly below-average Rays. While the Marlins have the home-field advantage, the Rays have the edge in pitching and offense. The game is expected to be closely contested, with betting markets giving both teams a relatively equal chance of winning.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

In his last start, Ryan Pepiot turned in a great performance and put up 7 strikeouts.

• A pitcher who was strong in his last outing may be sharp once again in his next outing.

Randy Arozarena has been unlucky this year, compiling a .257 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .337 — a .080 difference.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen grades out as the 6th-best in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Miami Marlins:

Compared to the average starter, Jesus Luzardo has been given an above-average leash this year, tallying an extra 4.2 adjusted pitches each start.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jake Burger's 16.4% Barrel% (a reliable stat to measure power) ranks in the 98th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Jake Burger pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.2% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 8th-deepest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Miami Marlins have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 60 games (+8.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 29 of their last 42 games (+16.45 Units / 34% ROI)
• Alex Jackson has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 10 of his last 11 games (+9.15 Units / 72% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.57 vs Miami Marlins 4.04

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.