Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction For 8/23/2024

• Date: August 23, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Tyler Alexander - Rays
  • Bobby Miller - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Tampa Bay Rays on August 23, 2024, the significance of this interleague matchup is underscored by the contrasting fortunes of both teams this season. The Dodgers, sitting comfortably with a record of 76-52, are having a great year and currently occupy a strong position in the standings, while the Rays hover around .500 at 64-63, struggling to find consistency.

In their last outing, the Dodgers delivered a strong performance against the Seattle Mariners, emphasizing their place as one of the top offensive teams, ranking 5th overall in the league. They are set to send Bobby Miller to the mound, although his season has been rocky with a 1-3 record and an alarming ERA of 8.02. However, advanced projections suggest he may have been unlucky, as his 4.81 xFIP indicates room for improvement. Miller's ability to generate ground balls could mitigate the damage against a Rays team that has struggled to hit for power this season, ranking 26th in home runs.

On the other side, the Rays will counter with Tyler Alexander, who has been one of the worst pitchers in MLB this year. Despite a respectable 5-3 record, his 5.17 ERA doesn't inspire confidence, and with an average pitching projection today, he faces a daunting task against a powerful Dodgers offense that has accumulated 139 home runs, ranking 3rd in MLB.

The Dodgers are heavy favorites with a moneyline of -200, which reflects their projected team total of 5.22 runs, a testament to their offensive prowess. The game's total is set at 9.0 runs, indicating expectations of a high-scoring affair. Given the Dodgers’ strong standing, a win here would further solidify their status as one of the league's elite teams.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Tyler Alexander is an extreme flyball pitcher (39.8% FB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) and is stuck pitching in the #3 HR venue among all major league parks in today's game.

• This pitcher's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Christopher Morel has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .190 mark is considerably lower than his .220 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's batting average ability more accurately than actual batting average can.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 4 batters in their projected batting order today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Alex Jackson, Josh Lowe, Christopher Morel, Kameron Misner).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Bobby Miller's higher utilization percentage of his fastball this year (53.6 compared to 48.1% last season) is not ideal considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Max Muncy is penciled in 6th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the top-half of the batting order this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen projects as the 5th-best out of all major league teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Run Line in 12 of their last 19 games at home (+7.85 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 61 of their last 104 games (+15.65 Units / 13% ROI)
• Teoscar Hernandez has hit the Home Runs Over in 5 of his last 14 games at home (+13.70 Units / 98% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.24 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 5.67

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