Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Dodgers Pick For 8/24/2024

• Date: August 24, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taj Bradley - Rays
  • Clayton Kershaw - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on August 24, 2024, at Dodger Stadium, the stakes are high for two teams heading in opposite directions. The Dodgers boast a solid record of 76-52 and are showing no signs of slowing down, while the Rays sit at a modest 64-63, reflecting an average season. Recent trends indicate the Dodgers' offense is firing on all cylinders, ranking 4th overall in MLB, while the Rays have struggled, placing 25th in the same category.

In their last outing, the Dodgers delivered an impressive performance, showcasing their strength against the Rays, with a Shohei Ohtani walk-off grand slam capping off Friday's action. Clayton Kershaw is projected to take the mound for Los Angeles, and despite a 2-2 record this year, his excellent 2.63 ERA suggests he can control the game. However, advanced metrics indicate he may be due for some regression, as his 3.97 xFIP hints at potential vulnerability. Kershaw projects to log about 5.1 innings, allowing roughly 2.0 earned runs, which should keep his team competitive.

On the other side, Taj Bradley will pitch for the Rays. With a 6-8 record and a respectable 3.55 ERA, he is slightly above average, but his performance against a high-octane lineup like the Dodgers could prove challenging. Bradley's projections suggest he may allow around 2.8 earned runs and 5.0 hits—numbers that could tilt the game heavily in favor of the Dodgers.

Betting insights reflect this disparity, with the Dodgers as significant favorites at -185 and an implied team total of 4.57 runs, compared to the Rays' lowly 3.43 runs. With the Dodgers at their peak and the Rays struggling to find consistency, this matchup could play out favorably for Los Angeles.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Out of every team today, the strongest infield defense belongs to the Tampa Bay Rays.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Dylan Carlson has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (75% of the time), but he is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

The Tampa Bay Rays have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (per the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Alex Jackson, Christopher Morel, Jose Siri).

• Teams that have multiple high-strikeout hitters will make it much easier for the opposing pitcher to record strikeouts

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Clayton Kershaw has averaged 78.1 adjusted pitches per game per started this year, placing in the 5th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Miguel Rojas's average exit velocity has decreased this season; his 87.3-mph average last year has fallen off to 84.4-mph.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen profiles as the 4th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the Moneyline in 14 of their last 18 games at home (+7.85 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 67 of their last 111 games (+21.15 Units / 16% ROI)
• Mookie Betts has hit the Singles Under in 11 of his last 15 games at home (+6.95 Units / 43% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.83 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 4.97

Get daily MLB picks here.