Tampa Bay Rays at Los Angeles Dodgers Best Bet – 8/25/2024

• Date: August 25, 2024
• Venue: Dodger Stadium
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Jacob Lopez - Rays
  • Gavin Stone - Dodgers

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers Betting Preview

As the Los Angeles Dodgers prepare to face the Tampa Bay Rays on August 25, 2024, they find themselves in strong playoff contention with a record of 77-53, while the Rays hover around .500 at 65-64. This matchup is particularly noteworthy as the two teams faced off just yesterday, with the Rays narrowly edging out the Dodgers 9-8 in a thrilling contest that saw both offenses shine.

In terms of pitching, the Dodgers will start Gavin Stone, who has had an impressive season with an 11-5 record and a 3.44 ERA. Stone's recent form is promising; in his last start on August 19, he threw 7 innings of shutout ball, striking out 10 batters. However, his performance metrics suggest he may be due for a regression, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.06, which suggests he has been somewhat lucky this season.

Opposing him will be Jacob Lopez, who enters this matchup with an ERA of 8.44. He will be expected to struggle in this contest, particularly against a high-walk Dodgers lineup.

The advanced projections favor the Dodgers, who boast the 3rd best offense in MLB, leading the league with 139 home runs. Meanwhile, the Rays’ offense ranks 25th, struggling to keep pace. The projections suggest that the Dodgers will score around 4.95 runs, showing clear potential to exploit Rasmussen’s groundball tendencies, especially with hitters like Shohei Ohtani, who has been exceptional this season.

With a high implied team total of 4.90 runs for the Dodgers, this game is critical as they look to rebound from yesterday’s loss against a Rays squad that has struggled offensively.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

When it comes to his strikeout talent, the leading projection system (THE BAT) puts Drew Rasmussen in the 75th percentile among all SPs in the league.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors and regularly tests among the most accurate systems available.

Jonny Deluca's average exit velocity has dropped off lately; his 84.6-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 81.9-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Tampa Bay grades out as the #30 group of hitters in the game when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to result the most in base hits (40.6% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Quick Takes Los Angeles Dodgers:

Among all starters, Gavin Stone's fastball velocity of 94.3 mph grades out in the 76th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (27.1) may lead us to conclude that Max Muncy has experienced some positive variance this year with his 36.7 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Los Angeles Dodgers' bullpen profiles as the 5th-best out of all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Los Angeles Dodgers have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Over in 13 of their last 18 games (+7.70 Units / 36% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 75 of their last 123 games (+24.45 Units / 17% ROI)
• Freddie Freeman has hit the Singles Under in 12 of his last 15 games at home (+9.25 Units / 56% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.5 vs Los Angeles Dodgers 4.96

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