Tampa Bay Rays at Houston Astros Pick & Prediction – 8/2/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Details

• Date: August 2, 2024
• Venue: Minute Maid Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Baz - Rays
  • Yusei Kikuchi - Astros

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Betting Preview

The Houston Astros host the Tampa Bay Rays in a crucial matchup on August 2, 2024, as both teams look to gain momentum in their respective standings. Currently, the Astros sit just above .500 with a 56-52 record, while the Rays are treading water at 55-53. The Astros' recent performance has been commendable; they are enjoying an above-average season, while the Rays are mired in average territory.

In their last outing, the Astros were victorious over the Pittsburgh Pirates, thanks in large part to their strong offense. Yusei Kikuchi is projected to take the mound for the Astros, and despite a challenging 4-9 record this year, he ranks as the 82nd best starting pitcher in MLB, suggesting he could be better than his stats indicate. Kikuchi's peripherals, including a 3.41 xFIP, hint at some bad luck this season, and he projects to strike out 6.1 batters today while allowing only 2.3 earned runs.

On the other side, Shane Baz is set to pitch for the Rays. With an ERA of 3.66 and just a 0-1 record in four starts, Baz has shown flashes of potential but ranks as a below-average pitcher overall. He projects to allow 2.5 earned runs while striking out only 4.0 batters. Baz's high walk rate (10.6 BB%) may not be exploited against a disciplined Astros offense that ranks 4th in the league for fewest walks allowed.

With the Astros offense ranking 9th in MLB and boasting the 2nd best batting average, they enter this matchup as betting favorites. The game total is set at 8.0 runs, reflecting the competitive nature of this series opener.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

With 6 hitters who share his hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Shane Baz ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Curtis Mead is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 81% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

Tampa Bay's 87.9-mph average exit velocity this year is one of the worst in baseball: #29 overall.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Houston Astros:

Among all starters, Yusei Kikuchi's fastball velocity of 95 mph is in the 83rd percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Chas McCormick has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86-mph dropping to 75.2-mph over the past 7 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Houston Astros have hit the Run Line in 32 of their last 52 games (+13.00 Units / 19% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 64 of their last 102 games (+23.10 Units / 19% ROI)
• Jeremy Pena has hit the Hits Under in 24 of his last 44 games (+11.75 Units / 18% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.05 vs Houston Astros 4.55

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