Tampa Bay Rays at Detroit Tigers Pick For 9/25/2024

• Date: September 25, 2024
• Venue: Comerica Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Keider Montero - Tigers

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers Betting Preview

The Detroit Tigers, with an 83-74 record, are hosting the Tampa Bay Rays, who sit at 78-79, at Comerica Park on September 25, 2024. As the American League season winds down, both teams have different narratives. The Tigers are enjoying an above-average season, while the Rays hover around mediocrity. In yesterday's matchup, the Tigers came out on top, adding some momentum to their playoff chase.

Keider Montero will take the mound for Detroit, bringing with him a 6-6 record and a rather unflattering 4.86 ERA this season. Despite his struggles, Montero's xFIP suggests he's been a bit unlucky, implying potential for improvement. His low strikeout rate could find some success against a Rays lineup that ranks 6th in strikeouts. Montero is projected to pitch 4.8 innings, allowing 2.5 earned runs, which aligns with his season averages.

On the other side, Tampa Bay counters with Zack Littell, who boasts a solid 3.56 ERA and an 8-9 record. Littell's xFIP hints at some fortune on his side this season, suggesting potential regression. He's expected to pitch around 5.2 innings, also allowing 2.5 earned runs. His advantage lies in facing a Tigers offense that ranks just 24th in batting average and home runs.

Both teams are backed by strong bullpens, with the Tigers ranked 9th and the Rays sitting at an impressive 2nd. This could make for a close contest, as reflected by the betting odds and projections. THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, gives both teams an equal shot at victory, forecasting a tight game with the Tigers marginally favored due to their recent form and home advantage.

While neither lineup has been particularly potent this season, Jace Jung's recent hot streak for the Tigers and Jonathan Aranda's power surge for the Rays add intrigue to this matchup. With both teams projected to score just over four runs, expect a low-scoring affair where the bullpens could tip the scales.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Zack Littell to throw 84 pitches in this matchup (13th-least of all pitchers on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.

• Pitchers who throw relatively few pitches are more likely to get pulled from the game earlier, record fewer outs, and generate fewer strikeouts.

Despite posting a .283 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Christopher Morel has had bad variance on his side given the .034 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .317.

• Players that are underperforming should be expected to play worse going forward, which can create value on prop Overs if the lines are too heavily weighing the unlucky, to-date underperformance.

Tampa Bay ranks as the #30 team in the league when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (40.7% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Quick Takes Detroit Tigers:

With a 5.15 FIP this year (Fielding Independent Pitching, an ERA estimator that focuses on the variables most within a pitcher's control), Keider Montero ranks in the 25th percentile.

• ERA is a bad and misleading stat. FIP is an improved version of it and gives a better estimate of a pitcher's deserved runs allowed.

Parker Meadows is projected to bat 1st in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 53% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.

• The higher in the order a player bats, the more plate appearances he will get and the more opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits higher in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting lower.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Detroit Tigers' bullpen profiles as the 9th-best among all teams in Major League Baseball.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Detroit Tigers have hit the Moneyline in 44 of their last 70 games (+19.85 Units / 24% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 86 of their last 145 games (+22.46 Units / 13% ROI)
• Spencer Torkelson has hit the RBIs Under in 25 of his last 34 games (+6.45 Units / 9% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.52 vs Detroit Tigers 4.33

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