Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians Pick & Prediction – 9/12/2024

• Date: September 12, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
  • Gavin Williams - Guardians

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 12, 2024, the stakes are high for a team that’s enjoying a strong season with an 84-62 record. The Guardians look to build on their solid performance as they face the struggling Rays, who enter the matchup at 71-75 and have dropped their last game, albeit they had a commendable win just prior.

Cleveland will send Gavin Williams to the mound, projected to pitch an average of 5.2 innings today. Despite his win/loss record sitting at 3-8 this season, he’s been a bit unlucky with a 5.25 ERA, coupled with an encouraging 4.14 xFIP indicating he could improve. He projects to allow 2.1 earned runs and strike out 6.3 batters, making him a capable starter, especially against a weak Rays offense ranked 26th overall in the league.

Ryan Pepiot will counter for Tampa Bay. While his 8-6 record is solid, his 3.66 ERA masks some luck, as his xFIP of 4.18 suggests he may regress. He’s projected to allow 2.4 earned runs but is also slated to struggle with hits and walks, which could play into the Guardians' hands, especially given their recent offensive uptick.

With a high implied team total of 4.27 runs for the Guardians contrasted against the Rays' 3.73, expectations trend in favor of Cleveland. Additionally, the Guardians boast the 5th best bullpen in the league, further tilting the odds. As Cleveland enters this series opener as betting favorites, they aim to capitalize on Tampa Bay's vulnerabilities and continue their strong season.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Jonathan Aranda is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game, which would be a downgrade from his 83% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this season.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.6%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

The Tampa Bay Rays have 6 hitters in the projected lineup that will hold the platoon advantage against Gavin Williams in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the least strikeout-heavy lineup in today's games is the Cleveland Guardians with a 19.6% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 41 of their last 64 games at home (+9.50 Units / 11% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Run Line in 46 of their last 75 games (+12.30 Units / 12% ROI)
• Jonny Deluca has hit the Hits Over in 25 of his last 35 games (+9.15 Units / 15% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.95 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.19

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