Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians Pick For 9/15/2024

• Date: September 15, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taj Bradley - Rays
  • Ben Lively - Guardians

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians prepare to face off against the Tampa Bay Rays on September 15, 2024, the stakes are clear—the Guardians are firmly in the playoff hunt with an 85-64 record, while the Rays sit at 73-76, struggling to find consistency this season. The Guardians are coming off a strong performance, looking to build momentum from their recent games.

In this matchup, the Guardians will send Ben Lively to the mound, a right-handed pitcher who has had a somewhat rocky season with an 11-9 record and a 4.01 ERA. While Lively ranks as the 209th best starting pitcher in MLB, his low strikeout rate (19.3 K%) could play to his advantage against a Rays offense that has accumulated the 5th most strikeouts in the league. Notably, Lively's tendency to allow fly balls may work in his favor, as the Rays have struggled to generate power, ranking 28th in the league in home runs.

On the other side, Tampa Bay will counter with Taj Bradley, who has been solid but faces a tough challenge against a Guardians offense that, while ranking 16th overall, has shown flashes of potential. The Guardians have excelled in stolen bases, sitting 5th in MLB, which could add pressure on the Rays' defense, especially with their strong 4th ranked bullpen backing Lively.

Interestingly, despite Lively’s struggles and the Guardians' average offensive rankings, projections indicate that they have a solid chance to outperform their betting odds, which currently place their implied win probability at 56%. With the projections suggesting a close contest, this game could be a pivotal moment for both teams, particularly for the Guardians as they aim to solidify their postseason position.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Tallying 92.4 adjusted pitches per outing this year on average, Taj Bradley checks in at the 77th percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Jonathan Aranda has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 97.6-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal 94-mph mark.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen projects as the 3rd-best out of all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Ben Lively's higher usage percentage of his fastball this season (60.4 compared to 54.4% last season) is not ideal consider they are generally much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball more often will likely be less effective than he used to be.

Josh Naylor has had positive variance on his side thus far when it comes to his home runs this year; his 29.9 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is significantly inflated relative to his 23.2 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Jose Ramirez pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (42% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• Ben Rortvedt has hit the Total Bases Under in 6 of his last 8 away games (+3.55 Units / 39% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.4 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.23

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.