Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians Pick For 9/14/2024

• Date: September 14, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Drew Rasmussen - Rays
  • Joey Cantillo - Guardians

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians host the Tampa Bay Rays at Progressive Field on September 14, 2024, both teams find themselves in contrasting standings, with the Guardians currently holding a solid record of 84-64, while the Rays sit at 73-75. The Guardians are not only eyeing a playoff berth but also looking to bounce back after a disappointing 3-1 loss to the Rays in their last outing on September 13.

On the mound, the Guardians are set to start Joey Cantillo, who has had a challenging season with a Win/Loss record of 1-3 and an ERA of 5.96. However, Cantillo's 3.93 xFIP suggests he has been somewhat unlucky and may improve going forward. Against him, the Rays will counter with Drew Rasmussen, a top-tier pitcher ranked 24th among 350 with a stellar ERA of 2.79. Rasmussen’s recent performance includes an abbreviated start where he allowed no earned runs, showcasing his ability to dominate in crucial moments.

In terms of offensive production, the Guardians rank 17th in MLB, reflecting an average season at the plate. Their best hitter, José Ramírez, has been pivotal, boasting 34 home runs and 39 stolen bases this season. Conversely, the Rays' offense has struggled this year, ranking 27th in the league. Yandy Díaz, their standout, has recorded a .284 batting average this season.

Despite the Guardians' recent setback, projections indicate they have a high implied team total of 4.45 runs, suggesting that oddsmakers see potential for a bounce-back performance. As the Guardians aim to reclaim their winning form, this matchup presents an opportunity to leverage their capable bullpen, ranked 4th in MLB, against a struggling Rays lineup.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Junior Caminero is an extreme groundball hitter and faces the strong infield defense of Cleveland (#1-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.5%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

Among every team today, the strongest infield defense is that of the the Cleveland Guardians.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing hits and runs.

Jose Ramirez has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 8.1% seasonal rate has fallen off to 0% in the past week.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Per the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the offense with the 5th-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Cleveland Guardians with a 20.2% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• Yandy Diaz has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 9 of his last 12 games (+5.25 Units / 34% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.13 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.46

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.