Tampa Bay Rays at Cleveland Guardians Best Bet – 9/13/2024

• Date: September 13, 2024
• Venue: Progressive Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Tanner Bibee - Guardians

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Betting Preview

As the Cleveland Guardians host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 13, 2024, the stakes are high for the Guardians, who are currently 84-63 and enjoying a solid season. Meanwhile, the Rays, sitting at 72-75, have struggled and are looking to salvage what they can from a disappointing year. In their previous game, the Guardians showcased their pitching strength with Tanner Bibee on the mound, who is projected to be a key factor in today’s matchup.

Tanner Bibee, who has started 28 games this season, boasts an impressive 11-7 record and a solid 3.56 ERA. His advanced stats place him as the 31st best starting pitcher in MLB, indicating he is well above average. Bibee’s ability to strike out batters—averaging 6.2 strikeouts per game—will be crucial against a Rays offense that ranks 5th in MLB for strikeouts. Furthermore, the Rays have struggled with power this season, ranking 28th in home runs, which could give Bibee an advantage as he tends to allow fly balls rather than hard contact.

On the other side, Zack Littell is projected to start for the Rays. With a 6-9 record and a 3.89 ERA, Littell's performance has been less than stellar, and his 4.49 xERA suggests he may be due for a downturn in effectiveness. The Guardians’ offense, while average overall, ranks 5th in stolen bases, which could put additional pressure on Littell if they get on base.

With the Guardians favored at -170, the projections suggest they should capitalize on their stronger pitching and the Rays’ offensive weaknesses. The Game Total is set at a low 7.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a tight contest. If the Guardians can leverage their advantages, they may well secure another victory in this pivotal matchup.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell's 91.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.5-mph decline from last year's 93.4-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Jose Caballero has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 83.8-mph dropping to 79.7-mph in the past two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Yandy Diaz has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Cleveland Guardians:

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Tanner Bibee is expected to rack up an average of 16.3 outs in this game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

As it relates to his home runs, Steven Kwan has experienced some positive variance this year. His 15.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a good deal higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 5.6.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Cleveland Guardians with a 19.6% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Cleveland Guardians have hit the Moneyline in 75 of their last 133 games (+7.65 Units / 4% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 76 of their last 130 games (+17.90 Units / 12% ROI)
• Andres Gimenez has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 31 games (+8.45 Units / 18% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.8 vs Cleveland Guardians 4.48

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.