Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Best Bet – 9/28/2024

• Date: September 28, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Shane Baz - Rays
  • Kutter Crawford - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox host the Tampa Bay Rays on September 28, 2024, in what promises to be a compelling American League East matchup. Both teams are having average seasons, with the Red Sox standing at 80-80 and the Rays at 79-81. While neither team is vying for the division title, the competition remains intense as they battle for pride and positioning. The Rays took the first game of the series, adding some momentum to their side.

The Red Sox have a slight edge in this game, with their offense ranking 7th in MLB this season, significantly outperforming the Rays' 27th-ranked lineup. Boston’s offense is bolstered by their strong team batting average and power, ranking 6th and 8th respectively. Triston Casas has been a standout performer for Boston recently, with a .300 batting average and a 1.281 OPS over the last week, contributing key hits and runs.

On the mound for Boston is Kutter Crawford, who holds an above-average ERA of 4.17 and ranks 74th among starting pitchers. Despite a less-than-stellar win-loss record of 9-15, Crawford's ability to generate flyballs could play to his advantage against a Rays lineup that struggles with power, ranking 28th in home runs. Opposing him is Shane Baz for the Rays, who, despite a solid ERA of 3.07, has been tagged as lucky with a higher xFIP of 4.48, suggesting potential regression.

The Red Sox bullpen ranks 15th, providing an average level of support, while the Rays boast the 3rd best bullpen, a significant strength for them. Despite this, with THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system, giving Boston a 54% win probability, their robust offense and Crawford's favorable matchup position them well to secure another victory at Fenway Park.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Shane Baz's 94.9-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 85th percentile out of all starters.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Josh Lowe has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (85% of the time), but he is projected to bat 6th in the lineup today.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Tampa Bay grades out as the #30 squad in Major League Baseball when it comes to hitting balls between -4° and 26°, the launch angle range that tends to best-produce base hits (40.7% rate this year).

• Balls that are hit either too high or too low can easy to field, but balls hit between -4° and 26° are far more likely to become base hits.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Kutter Crawford is an extreme flyball pitcher (42.6% FB% via the leading projection system, THE BAT) and has the benefit of pitching in the #21 HR venue among all parks today.

• This pitcher's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Tyler O'Neill has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.9-mph average to last year's 92.8-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The 9.1% Barrel% of the Boston Red Sox grades them out as the #4 club in the majors this year by this metric.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 9 of their last 14 games (+4.45 Units / 28% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 88 of their last 147 games (+25.06 Units / 15% ROI)
• Jarren Duran has hit the Hits Under in 18 of his last 21 games at home (+11.65 Units / 26% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.13 vs Boston Red Sox 4.38

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