Tampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox Best Bet – 9/27/2024

• Date: September 27, 2024
• Venue: Fenway Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Taj Bradley - Rays
  • Nick Pivetta - Red Sox

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Betting Preview

The Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays are set to face off on September 27, 2024, at the iconic Fenway Park. This clash is an American League East matchup, but given both teams' records, it won’t have a significant impact on the standings. The Red Sox enter the game with an 80-79 record, while the Rays stand at 78-81. Both teams are experiencing average seasons and are not positioned for a playoff push.

The Red Sox have a slight edge according to the betting markets, with a Moneyline of -135, implying a 55% win probability. This aligns closely with THE BAT X projections, the leading MLB projection system, which gives Boston a 54% chance of sealing the victory. This suggests a tight contest, but potential value lies slightly with the Red Sox.

On the mound for Boston is Nick Pivetta, who is projected to deliver a solid performance despite his 6-11 record and 4.21 ERA this year. His 3.51 xFIP suggests he’s been somewhat unlucky, offering hope for a better outing against the Rays. Pivetta is especially poised to exploit Tampa Bay's high strikeout tendencies, as he ranks as the #85 starting pitcher among 350.

The Rays counter with Taj Bradley, who holds a similar narrative with a 7-11 record and 4.30 ERA. Bradley's above-average stats are underpinned by a 3.66 xFIP, indicating potential for improvement. He ranks slightly higher than Pivetta at #71.

Offensively, the scales tip towards Boston. The Red Sox boast the 7th-best offense in MLB, showing strong rankings in batting average and home runs. In contrast, Tampa's offense struggles at the plate, ranking 27th overall in both batting average and power.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Taj Bradley has averaged 93.2 adjusted pitches per GS this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile.

• Pitchers who average more pitches per game are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme groundball bats like Yandy Diaz usually hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Nick Pivetta.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

It may be best to expect positive regression for the Tampa Bay Rays offense in the future, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 5th-unluckiest offense in the majors this year.

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Quick Takes Boston Red Sox:

Nick Pivetta's slider rate has jumped by 12.5% from last season to this one (17.4% to 29.9%) .

• Because sliders are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Connor Wong is projected to bat 8th on the lineup card today, which would be a downgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Boston Red Sox bats as a group rank 3rd- in Major League Baseball for power this year when using their 9.2% Barrel%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Game Trends

• The Boston Red Sox have hit the Game Total Under in 13 of their last 22 games (+4.10 Units / 17% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the Game Total Under in 51 of their last 83 games (+21.55 Units / 23% ROI)
• Trevor Story has hit the Total Bases Under in 12 of his last 18 games (+7.95 Units / 36% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.38 vs Boston Red Sox 4.46

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