Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles Prediction For 9/8/2024

• Date: September 8, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Corbin Burnes - Orioles

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to take on the Tampa Bay Rays on September 8, 2024, the stakes are significant for the home team, currently sitting at 82-61. The Orioles are fighting to maintain their position in a competitive American League East, while the Rays, at 70-72, find themselves in the midst of an average season. The teams met just yesterday, with the Rays stunning the Orioles in a decisive 7-1 victory, leaving Baltimore eager to bounce back.

The matchup features two right-handed pitchers: Corbin Burnes for the Orioles and Zack Littell for the Rays. Burnes is having a solid season, boasting a 3.19 ERA and a 13-7 record over 28 starts. However, his 3.83 SIERA suggests he might have been a bit fortunate this year. Burnes projects to allow 2.0 earned runs and strike out 5.7 batters today, which aligns with his reputation as a high-groundball pitcher, a style that could work in his favor against a Rays offense ranked 27th in the league.

On the other hand, Littell, with a 4.04 ERA and a 5-9 record in 24 starts, faces a tough challenge. His projections indicate he might struggle today, forecasting 2.8 earned runs allowed and an average of 5.3 hits. The Orioles' offense, ranked 1st in home runs and 5th overall, is poised to capitalize on Littell's high-flyball tendencies.

As per the leading MLB projection system, the Orioles are favored with a high implied team total of 4.37 runs, suggesting confidence in their offensive prowess today. If Burnes can keep the Rays in check, the Orioles should have a strong chance to redeem themselves after yesterday's loss.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell's 91.9-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.5-mph decrease from last season's 93.4-mph figure.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Junior Caminero has had some very good luck this year. His .335 figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .288.

• xwOBA uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's overall hitting ability more accurately than actual wOBA can.

The Tampa Bay Rays bullpen profiles as the 4th-best in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Corbin Burnes has been given more leash than the average pitcher this year, throwing 3.6 more adjusted pitches-per-start than the average hurler.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Eloy Jimenez has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this year (87% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this matchup.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 57 of their last 103 games (+14.55 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 71 of their last 123 games (+15.00 Units / 10% ROI)
• Anthony Santander has hit the RBIs Under in 17 of his last 22 games (+8.65 Units / 22% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.6 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.79

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