Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles Pick & Prediction – 9/7/2024

• Date: September 7, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
  • Zach Eflin - Orioles

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

As the Baltimore Orioles prepare to host the Tampa Bay Rays at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on September 7, 2024, the stakes are high in this American League East matchup. The Orioles, boasting an impressive record of 82-60, are clearly in the playoff hunt, while the Rays, at 69-72, are looking to salvage their season. The previous day's game saw the Orioles shut out the Rays with a 2-0 victory, further solidifying Baltimore's strong standing.

On the mound, Zach Eflin is set to take the hill for the Orioles. Eflin, ranked 28th among MLB starting pitchers, has had a solid season with a 10-7 record and a respectable ERA of 3.60. His last outing was particularly strong, as he pitched 7 innings, allowing just 1 earned run and striking out 9 batters. Conversely, Ryan Pepiot, the Rays' starter, has had a more inconsistent year, holding a 7-6 record and a 3.76 ERA. Pepiot's last start was abbreviated, lasting only 3 innings, where he surrendered 3 earned runs.

The Orioles' offense has been a force this season, ranking 1st in MLB in home runs with 157, making them a daunting challenge for Pepiot, who has a tendency to give up fly balls. With Gunnar Henderson leading the charge, hitting .282 with 36 home runs, the Orioles are primed to exploit any mistakes.

While the projections suggest a competitive game, the Orioles' considerable edge in both offense and starting pitching makes them the favorites to win. With the Game Total set at a low 7.5 runs, expect a tightly contested battle, but one where the Orioles’ power may very well shine through.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Ryan Pepiot projects to average 4.6 hits in today's game, as forecasted by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Josh Lowe has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.9-mph to 94.4-mph in the last two weeks.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen profiles as the 4th-best among all MLB teams.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

Zach Eflin's curveball percentage has dropped by 8% from last season to this one (26.5% to 18.5%) .

• Because curveballs are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use them less often may see less success as a result, particularly if he uses his fastball more instead.

Anthony Santander is an extreme flyball batter and squares off against the strong outfield defense of Tampa Bay (#3-best of all teams today).

• This player's skill set matches up poorly with the opposing team's defensive strength, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (39.5% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the Run Line in 71 of their last 129 games (+19.35 Units / 12% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 69 of their last 120 games (+14.35 Units / 10% ROI)
• Colton Cowser has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 34 of his last 47 games (+21.10 Units / 38% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 3.69 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.52

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