Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Pick, Prediction & Preview

• Date: June 2, 2024
• Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Zack Littell - Rays
  • Cole Irvin - Orioles

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview

The Orioles have been having a great season so far, with a record of 37-19. They are currently leading their division and have shown a strong performance throughout the year. On the other hand, the Rays have had a below-average season with a record of 28-31. They will need to step up their game to improve their standing in the division.

The Orioles are projected to start left-handed pitcher Cole Irvin, who has had a solid season. Irvin has started 8 games this year and has a win-loss record of 5-2 with an impressive ERA of 2.84. However, his 4.02 xFIP suggests that he may have been lucky and could regress in his future performances.

The Rays, on the other hand, are projected to start right-handed pitcher Zack Littell. Littell has started 11 games this season and has a win-loss record of 2-3 with a solid ERA of 3.03. According to our advanced-stat Power Rankings, Littell is considered the #85 best starting pitcher in MLB.

In terms of offense, the Orioles have been performing well, ranking as the 6th best in MLB this season. They have an average team batting average and rank 17th in both home runs and stolen bases. The Rays, however, have struggled offensively, ranking as the 24th best in MLB. They have a good team batting average and rank 4th in both home runs and stolen bases.

When it comes to the bullpens, the Rays have the advantage, ranking as the 7th best in MLB, while the Orioles rank 18th. However, it's important to note that these rankings are based on underlying talent and not just year-to-date performance.

Based on the current odds, the Orioles are the betting favorites with a moneyline of -140, giving them an implied win probability of 56%. The Rays, as underdogs, have a moneyline of +120, with an implied win probability of 44%. The Orioles have a higher implied team total of 4.54 runs compared to the Rays' average team total of 3.96 runs.

Overall, this game promises to be an exciting matchup between two division rivals. The Orioles will look to continue their strong season and maintain their lead in the division, while the Rays will aim to turn things around and improve their standing. With Cole Irvin on the mound for the Orioles and Zack Littell for the Rays, both teams will need to bring their A-game to secure a victory.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Zack Littell's four-seam fastball utilization has decreased by 6.2% from last season to this one (27.9% to 21.7%) .

• Fastballs are the one easiest pitches to hit and generate few strikeouts, so a pitcher who begins to use his fastball lessoften will likely be more effective than he used to be.

Jose Siri has big-time power (87th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (34.4% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Cole Irvin is a pitch-to-contact type (2nd percentile K%) — great news for Siri.

• If he is less likely to strikeout, he'll be more likely to make contact, which is often hard, home-run contact.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Tampa Bay Rays' bullpen ranks as the 7th-best among all teams in the majors.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Baltimore Orioles:

The Baltimore Orioles outfield defense projects as the 2nd-worst among every team in action today.

• Defense is an integral part of preventing (or, in this case, allowing) hits and runs.

Ryan Mountcastle's speed has decreased this season. His 28.2 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 27.52 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Anthony Santander pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.8% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest RF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Baltimore Orioles have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 26 of their last 40 games (+10.45 Units / 21% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 36 of their last 52 games (+19.70 Units / 33% ROI)
• Jorge Mateo has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Over in 15 of his last 23 games (+7.40 Units / 27% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.42 vs Baltimore Orioles 4.67

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