Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves Pick & Prediction – 6/15/2024

Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves Details

• Date: June 15, 2024
• Venue: Truist Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Ryan Pepiot - Rays
  • Charlie Morton - Braves

Betting Odds

Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves Betting Preview

The Atlanta Braves will face off against the Tampa Bay Rays on June 15, 2024, at Truist Park in an interleague matchup. This is the second game in the series between these two teams, with the Braves looking to solidify their strong season standing as they hold a 37-30 record. On the other hand, the Rays have been struggling this season with a 33-37 record and are below average.

The Braves have Charlie Morton taking the mound, who is ranked as the 114th best starting pitcher in MLB according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. While Morton’s overall season performance is average, he does project to pitch 5.4 innings and strike out 6.2 batters on average today. However, his projections also indicate he may allow 4.9 hits and 2.3 walks, both of which are poor metrics.

The Rays counter with Ryan Pepiot, who is ranked 35th among starting pitchers. Despite his higher ranking, Pepiot is only projected to pitch 4.9 innings, which is considered subpar. However, his projected 2.7 earned runs allowed should give Tampa Bay a fighting chance, though his projections also point to allowing 4.7 hits and 1.5 walks.

Offensively, the Braves have the edge with a #13 ranking in team batting average this season, even if their power and speed are lacking with a #20 rank in home runs and a dismal #28 rank in stolen bases. Matt Olson has been red-hot for the Braves over the last week, hitting .375 with a 1.111 OPS.

The Rays offense has struggled mightily, ranking 21st in batting average and a woeful 29th in home runs. However, they have been aggressive on the base paths, ranking 5th in stolen bases. Ben Rortvedt has been a bright spot recently, hitting .364 with a .916 OPS over the last seven games.

The Braves are favored in this matchup with a -155 moneyline, implying a 59% chance of victory, while the Rays sit at +135 with an implied win probability of 41%. Given the Braves' solid season and home-field advantage at Truist Park, they appear to be the stronger bet in this matchup. The projected game total sits at 8.5 runs, indicating an average scoring affair.

Quick Takes Tampa Bay Rays:

Ryan Pepiot has been lucky in regards to his strikeouts this year, posting a 10.49 K/9 despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 9.88 — a 0.61 K/9 difference.

• Pitchers that are overperforming should be expected to pitch worse going forward, which can create value on K prop Unders if the lines are too heavily weighing the lucky, to-date overperformance.

Taylor Walls's 3.3% Barrel% (a reliable standard to assess power) ranks in the 9th percentile since the start of last season.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Tampa Bay Rays bats collectively rank near the top of MLB since the start of last season (5th-) as it relates to their 89.4-mph average exit velocity.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

Quick Takes Atlanta Braves:

Charlie Morton's 93.2-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 1.1-mph fall off from last season's 94.3-mph mark.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Sean Murphy's speed has decreased this season. His 26.03 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 24.62 ft/sec now.

• Slow players tend to get fewer hits because they can't beat out groundballs, fewer extra base hits, and fewer stolen bases.

Jarred Kelenic hits many of his flyballs to center field (41.2% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Atlanta Braves have hit the Game Total Under in 39 of their last 62 games (+15.90 Units / 23% ROI)
• The Tampa Bay Rays have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Team Total Under in 35 of their last 52 games (+18.10 Units / 30% ROI)
• Austin Riley has hit the Hits Runs and RBIs Under in 27 of his last 38 games (+16.30 Units / 36% ROI)

Tampa Bay Rays vs Atlanta Braves Prediction

Final Score: Tampa Bay Rays 4.68 vs Atlanta Braves 4.83

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