St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Odds & Picks – 7/5/2024

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Details

• Date: July 5, 2024
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
  • Patrick Corbin - Nationals

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Betting Preview

As the Washington Nationals gear up to host the St. Louis Cardinals on July 5, 2024, at Nationals Park, all eyes will be on the pitching duel between Patrick Corbin and Sonny Gray. The Nationals, who currently hold a 41-46 record, are struggling to find consistency this season, while the Cardinals, at 45-41, are having a more promising campaign.

Patrick Corbin, the Nationals' left-hander, has had a rough season. With a 1-8 record and a 5.49 ERA, he's ranked 331st among starting pitchers according to THE BAT X, the leading MLB projection system. Despite these struggles, his 4.45 xFIP suggests some of his poor performance could be attributed to bad luck. Corbin is projected to pitch 5.2 innings, allowing 3.5 earned runs, 6.4 hits, 1.7 walks, and striking out 3.2 batters on average.

On the other hand, the Cardinals' Sonny Gray is poised to continue his stellar season. With a 9-5 record and a sparkling 2.98 ERA, Gray is currently ranked 14th among starting pitchers. He projects to pitch 5.4 innings, allowing 2.4 earned runs, 5.3 hits, 1.5 walks, and striking out 4.6 batters—moderately below average in strikeouts but strong in other areas.

Offensively, the Nationals are ranked 24th overall and have particularly struggled with power, ranking 29th in home runs. Their bright spot has been base running, where they rank 3rd in stolen bases. In contrast, the Cardinals' offense is ranked 20th and shows a bit more balance, holding an average ranking in batting average and stolen bases but struggling with power as well, sitting 23rd in home runs.

Luis Garcia has been a standout for the Nationals over the past week, posting a .316 batting average and a robust 1.065 OPS with 2 home runs and 1 stolen base in six games. Meanwhile, Dylan Carlson has been on fire for the Cardinals, hitting .400 with a 1.000 OPS over his last six games.

Both teams' bullpens provide a stark contrast; the Nationals' bullpen is ranked 29th, while the Cardinals boast the 1st-ranked bullpen in MLB. This disparity could prove decisive in the latter innings.

The Nationals are a significant underdog with a moneyline of +160 and an implied win probability of 37%. In contrast, the Cardinals are favored with a -185 moneyline and a 63% implied win probability. With Sonny Gray on the mound and a superior bullpen, the Cardinals look primed to take the first game of this series.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Sonny Gray has gone to his cut-fastball 5.5% more often this season (18.6%) than he did last season (13.1%).

• Because cutters are one of the most effective pitches to use, a pitcher who alters his pitch mix to use more of them will often see more success as a result.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (15.0) provides evidence that Willson Contreras has had positive variance on his side this year with his 25.1 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

Nolan Gorman pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.6% — 90th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Among all starting pitchers, Patrick Corbin's fastball velocity of 90.8 mph grades out in the 10th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Luis Garcia has primarily hit in the top-half of the batting order this season (70% of the time), but he is projected to hit 6th in the batting order in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Via the leading projection system (THE BAT X), the team with the 3rd-least strikeout-heavy lineup on the slate today is the Washington Nationals with a 19.9% underlying K%.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Run Line in 47 of their last 81 games (+10.65 Units / 10% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the 1st Five Innings (F5) Run Line in 23 of their last 38 games (+5.45 Units / 12% ROI)
• Alec Burleson has hit the Hits Over in 8 of his last 11 games (+8.90 Units / 60% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5.74 vs Washington Nationals 4.24

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