St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Prediction – 5/11/2025

On May 11, 2025, the Washington Nationals will host the St. Louis Cardinals at Nationals Park in a pivotal National League matchup. The Nationals come into this game having struggled this season with a record of 17-23, while the Cardinals sit above .500 at 21-19. In their last contest, the Nationals faced the Cardinals and lost, further complicating their efforts to turn the season around.

On the mound for Washington is MacKenzie Gore, who has shown flashes of brilliance despite a 2-3 record and an impressive ERA of 3.33. Gore's advanced metrics suggest he has been unlucky this season, as evidenced by his xFIP of 2.41, indicating he could perform significantly better moving forward. He projects to pitch about 5.5 innings, allowing an average of 2.4 earned runs and striking out 6.4 batters, which points to potential effectiveness against the Cardinals' lineup.

Opposing Gore will be Miles Mikolas, who has struggled this season with a 1-2 record and an ERA of 4.76. Mikolas’s peripherals are even more concerning, as his xFIP stands at 5.40, suggesting he may not maintain his current form. His projections indicate he might allow 3.0 earned runs over approximately 5.4 innings, with only 3.0 strikeouts, a red flag against a Nationals offense that ranks 15th overall in MLB.

While the Nationals offense may be average overall, they rank 7th in stolen bases, showcasing their speed on the bases. If Gore can keep the Cardinals at bay, the Nationals could capitalize on Mikolas's vulnerabilities to secure a crucial win. The current Game Total is set at 8.5 runs, reflecting expectations for a competitive matchup, with the Nationals holding a slight edge in the betting markets.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

Miles Mikolas's fastball velocity has fallen 1.8 mph this year (91.3 mph) below where it was last year (93.1 mph).

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs, so a pitcher whose velocity decreases will likely see worse results.

Willson Contreras has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 97.8-mph average to last season's 95.1-mph average.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

Nolan Arenado pulls many of his flyballs (42.1% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Washington Nationals:

Compared to average, MacKenzie Gore has been granted an above-average leash this year, throwing an extra 8.7 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

Extreme flyball hitters like Josh Bell are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Miles Mikolas.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

The Washington Nationals (20.5 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone team of batters of the day.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Game Trends

• The Washington Nationals have hit the Game Total Over in 8 of their last 14 games at home (+2.50 Units / 16% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 8 of their last 10 games (+6.55 Units / 57% ROI)
• Josh Bell has hit the Hits Under in 13 of his last 20 games (+10.30 Units / 45% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Washington Nationals Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.33, Washington Nationals 4.76

• Date: May 11, 2025
• Venue: Nationals Park
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • MacKenzie Gore - Nationals

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