St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick & Preview – 9/15/2024

• Date: September 15, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Miles Mikolas - Cardinals
  • Yariel Rodriguez - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on September 15, 2024, both teams are looking to find their footing in a tightly contested matchup. The Blue Jays hold a record of 71-78 this season, struggling to find consistent success, while the Cardinals sit at 74-74, reflecting an average season. Both teams are not in playoff contention, but with the season winding down, every game holds significance.

In their last game, the Blue Jays faced off against the Cardinals and were able to secure a win. On the mound for the Blue Jays is Yariel Rodriguez, who will be looking to capitalize against a Cardinals lineup that has been inconsistent this year. Miles Mikolas, a right-handed pitcher, takes the hill for St. Louis, but his season has been challenging, boasting a Win/Loss record of 8-11 and a troubling ERA of 5.55.

The projections suggest that the Blue Jays offense, ranked 15th in MLB, has the potential to exploit Mikolas’s low strikeout rate, as they are among the least strikeout-prone teams in the league. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have struggled with power, ranking 24th in home runs. With both offenses showing signs of inconsistency, the Blue Jays might have the edge given their favorable matchup against Mikolas.

According to the leading MLB projection system, the Blue Jays are favored to win with a projected team total of 4.42 runs, compared to the Cardinals' 4.09 runs. As the teams face off, the outcome could hinge on how effectively Rodriguez can handle a Cardinals lineup that has been prone to ups and downs this season.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Miles Mikolas will wring up 16.4 outs in today's outing.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (17.1) suggests that Alec Burleson has experienced some positive variance this year with his 23.2 actual HR/600.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The St. Louis Cardinals (20.7 K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) are forecasted to have the 5th-least strikeout-prone lineup of the day.

• THE BAT X analyzes each player in today's specific lineup to figure out which teams have the least inherent strikeout potential for the opposing pitcher.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

With 6 hitters who share his hand in the opposing team's projected batting order, Yariel Rodriguez ought to benefit from owning the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform better against right-handed hitters (and the same for lefties). Having this advantage against a lot of opposing hitters can have a huge impact on whether a pitcher will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Over the past two weeks, Alejandro Kirk's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 7% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

The Toronto Blue Jays bullpen projects as the 7th-worst in the game, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• Yariel Rodriguez has hit the Strikeouts Under in 6 of his last 9 games (+2.85 Units / 26% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.09 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.42

For more on today's game check out the comprehensive statistics, betting odds, and trends below. Be sure to check out all our free MLB picks here.