St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Pick & Preview – 9/13/2024

• Date: September 13, 2024
• Venue: Rogers Centre
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Erick Fedde - Cardinals
  • Kevin Gausman - Blue Jays

Betting Odds

St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays Win Probabilities

Implied Win % in sports betting represent the probability of an outcome as suggested by the betting odds. It's a way for bettors to gauge the likelihood of an event occurring based on the odds offered by sportsbooks.

Projected Win %, also known as projected win probability, is an estimate by ATS.io to determine the likelihood that a team will win a game or event. This projection is often based on various factors such as team performance, statistics, and historical data.

St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays Betting Preview

As the Toronto Blue Jays prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on September 13, 2024, both teams are looking to improve their positions as the season winds down. The Blue Jays hold a record of 69-78, indicating a below-average season, while the Cardinals sit at 74-72, marking a generally average performance. This matchup, an interleague game at Rogers Centre, carries significance as it's the first game of the series between these two teams.

The Blue Jays have struggled recently, and their last performance was uninspiring. They are projected to start Kevin Gausman, whose season has been a tale of ups and downs. Gausman has a Win/Loss record of 12-11 with a respectable ERA of 4.09 and an average projection of 6.1 innings pitched. However, the projections suggest he might allow 5.4 hits, which could put him in a vulnerable position against a Cardinals offense that, despite ranking only 20th in the league, has shown flashes of potential.

On the other side, St. Louis is expected to send Erick Fedde to the mound, who has had a solid season with an 8-9 record and an impressive ERA of 3.39. Fedde’s projections indicate he may struggle with walks, averaging 1.6, and could face difficulties against a Blue Jays lineup that ranks 14th in the league offensively.

With the Cardinals holding the advantage in starting pitching and recent form, they could be poised to capitalize on the Blue Jays' bullpen, ranked 23rd overall. This game could be critical for St. Louis as they aim to bolster their standings in the playoff race. As the teams square off, it will be intriguing to see if Toronto can rally and turn their season around against a competitive opponent.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

In his last GS, Erick Fedde didn't have his best stuff when it came to striking hitters out and only managed to tally 1 Ks.

• A pitcher who struggled in his last outing may have something wrong that affects him in his next outing as well.

When it comes to his home runs, Alec Burleson has had some very good luck this year. His 23.8 HR per 600 plate appearances figure has been a fair amount higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected HR/600 at 17.5.

• xHR uses highly advanced Statcast data to measure a player's home run ability more accurately than actual home runs can.

The St. Louis Cardinals bullpen ranks as the 9th-best in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a strong bullpen sneakily creates a tougher matchup for the opposing offense and suppresses a game's runs.

Quick Takes Toronto Blue Jays:

Compared to the average hurler, Kevin Gausman has been given an above-average leash this year, throwing an additional 9.4 adjusted pitches each game.

• Pitchers with a longer leash are more likely to go deeper into games and record more outs.

In the last 7 days, George Springer's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 9.5% down to 0%.

• Barrel% measures how often a player hits the ball at the optimal exit velocity and launch angle and is a terrific measure of underlying power.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 85th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 10th-shallowest CF fences today.

• This player's skill set matches up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to better-than-usual performance.

Game Trends

• The Toronto Blue Jays have hit the Game Total Over in 37 of their last 60 games at home (+14.20 Units / 22% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Team Total Under in 13 of their last 20 away games (+4.85 Units / 20% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays Prediction

Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 3.87 vs Toronto Blue Jays 4.23

Stay informed with the most recent MLB news and our analytics-driven MLB picks and predictions all season long.