St. Louis Cardinals vs Texas Rangers Prediction – 5/31/2025

On May 31, 2025, the Texas Rangers host the St. Louis Cardinals at Globe Life Field in an intriguing interleague matchup. The Cardinals, currently positioned 2nd in the National League Central with a solid record of 32-25, are in good form. Meanwhile, the Rangers sit at 28-30 in the American League West, struggling through a below-average season. In their previous matchup, the Cardinals faced a tough loss, which adds pressure as they look to turn their fortunes around.

The starting pitchers offer a compelling contrast. Patrick Corbin, projected to take the mound for the Rangers, has had a mixed season with a Win/Loss record of 3-3 and an ERA of 3.75, which is decent, but his advanced metrics suggest he has had a bit of good luck. In contrast, Sonny Gray of the Cardinals boasts a 5-1 record and a 4.06 ERA, but his xFIP of 3.21 indicates he may be due for better results moving forward.

Offensively, the Cardinals rank 7th in MLB, bolstered by a strong batting average of .290, which is 3rd best in the league. The Rangers, however, find themselves at the bottom of the league, ranked 30th in overall offense and 29th in batting average. This stark difference in offensive output could be pivotal in this matchup.

The projections suggest that while the Rangers have a low implied team total of 3.71 runs, there may be value in betting on them, especially given that Sonny Gray excels at limiting walks against a Rangers lineup that has struggled to get on base. With the Game Total set at 8.0 runs, this game has the potential for some unexpected twists, especially if Corbin can outpitch expectations.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects that Sonny Gray will record an average of 17 outs in today's game.

• THE BAT X is a highly sophisticated projection system that accounts for a multitude of factors like ballpark, weather, umpire, defense, and more.

Nolan Arenado has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this season (84% of the time), but he is penciled in 6th on the lineup card in this game.

• The lower in the order a player bats, the fewer plate appearances he will get and the fewer opportunities he will get to hit the Over for every market. A player who hits lower in the order than he normally does may provide extra value opportunity since the market may be based on him hitting higher.

Lars Nootbaar hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 98th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the game's 7th-deepest CF fences in today's game.

• This player's skill set does not match up particularly well with the park he's in today, which may lead to worse-than-usual performance.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

The St. Louis Cardinals have 6 bats in the projected batting order that will have the handedness advantage over Patrick Corbin in this matchup.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Josh Jung's average exit velocity has declined in recent games; his 87.2-mph seasonal figure has lowered to 78.8-mph in the last 14 days.

• Hitting the ball hard increases the chances of either a home run or the ball landing in fair territory for a hit before a fielder can get to it.

The Texas Rangers have been the unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in the future

• When teams underperform their projected talent level, markets may undervalue them even while they are likely to perform better in the near future.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 38 of their last 56 games (+17.75 Units / 27% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Run Line in 21 of their last 28 games (+14.90 Units / 39% ROI)
• Pedro Pages has hit the Singles Under in his last 7 games (+7.00 Units / 68% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 5.07, Texas Rangers 4.3

• Date: May 31, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Sonny Gray - Cardinals
  • Patrick Corbin - Rangers

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