St. Louis Cardinals vs Texas Rangers Pick – 5/30/2025

As the Texas Rangers prepare to host the St. Louis Cardinals on May 30, 2025, they find themselves struggling this season with a record of 27-30, while the Cardinals are enjoying a solid campaign at 32-24. This Interleague matchup marks the first game of the series, and both teams are looking to gain momentum. In their last outings, the Rangers fell 2-0 to the Toronto Blue Jays, while the Cardinals secured a 6-4 victory over the Baltimore Orioles.

Jack Leiter is set to take the mound for the Rangers. Despite having a Win/Loss record of 3-2 and an ERA of 4.17, Leiter has struggled with a 5.06 xFIP, indicating he may have been fortunate in his performances thus far. He projects to pitch 5.1 innings today, allowing an average of 2.6 earned runs, but his high walk rate could be a concern against a Cardinals offense that ranks 7th overall in MLB.

On the other hand, Matthew Liberatore will start for St. Louis. With a record of 3-3 and an impressive ERA of 2.73, he has been a reliable presence on the mound. His ability to limit walks (3.4 BB%) could play a crucial role against a Rangers lineup that ranks 30th in MLB offensive production. Although Liberatore's projections suggest he might allow 2.7 earned runs over 5.5 innings, his performance has generally been above average.

Given the Rangers' struggles on offense and their low ranking across various metrics, they face an uphill battle against a Cardinals team that has shown more consistency. While the Rangers' implied team total sits at 4.29 runs, the projections favor the Cardinals with a higher total of 4.71 runs, reflecting the challenges Texas may encounter in this matchup.

Quick Takes St. Louis Cardinals:

With 6 batters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Matthew Liberatore will have a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this game.

• Right-handed pitchers perform worse against left-handed hitters (and visa-versa). If several hitters hold this advantage against the pitcher, it can have a huge impact on whether he will perform well or struggle on any given day.

Willson Contreras has seen a big increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 98.3-mph average to last season's 95.1-mph figure.

• Most home runs are flyballs, and the harder those flyballs are hit, the more often they turn into home runs. This is a strong indicator of power.

The St. Louis Cardinals have been the 3rd-luckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform worse the rest of the season

• When teams overperform their projected talent level, markets may overvalue them even while they are likely to perform worse in the near future.

Quick Takes Texas Rangers:

Out of all starting pitchers, Jack Leiter's fastball velocity of 96.7 mph is in the 96th percentile this year.

• Velocity is a key component to fastball success in generating strikeouts and preventing runs.

Batters such as Kyle Higashioka with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Matthew Liberatore who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

• This mostly has to do with the way the hitter's swing plane interacts with the pitch trajectory, and it can create boosted performance across all categories and hidden value few are considering.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), the Texas Rangers' bullpen ranks as the worst out of all the teams in the league.

• Most bettors only consider the starting pitcher, but a weak bullpen sneakily creates an easier matchup for the opposing offense and boosts a game's runs.

Game Trends

• The Texas Rangers have hit the Team Total Under in 36 of their last 53 games (+16.55 Units / 26% ROI)
• The St. Louis Cardinals have hit the Moneyline in 20 of their last 27 games (+14.15 Units / 46% ROI)
• Josh Jung has hit the Runs Under in 8 of his last 9 games (+6.25 Units / 38% ROI)

St. Louis Cardinals vs Texas Rangers Prediction

Predicted Final Score: St. Louis Cardinals 4.75, Texas Rangers 4.51

• Date: May 30, 2025
• Venue: Globe Life Field
• Starting Pitchers:
  • Matthew Liberatore - Cardinals
  • Jack Leiter - Rangers

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